Pemodelan Stokastik Pertumbuhan Penduduk di Kota Rembang dengan Mempertimbangkan Proses Kelahiran, Kematian, dan Migrasi

Abstract

The Population growth can be determined using birth and death rates and also the factor of migration. Both birth and death proceses are considered within Poisson process. An increase of population level would decrease the land residence, the number of homes, and the job opportunities. Therefore, we need stochastic models to estimate the population level in the Rembang city, Central Java province. This study is to draw up a stochastic population growth model through birth, death and migration process to predict the level of population. The data are processed using the trend analysis and the merger methods. The result of stochastic modeling shows that the level of population in the city of Rembang in 2013 are 603784, and in the following year was 610895.