Identifikasi Fluktuasi Ketinggian Tropopause di Kawasan Pasifik Tropis

Abstract

The 30-years (January 1981 – December 2010) ERA-Interim data issued by ECMWF (Europe Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) is used for identifying tropopause height fluctuation in tropical Pacific region. Principle component and spectral analysis is done in order to identify the main pattern of tropopause height fluctuation as generator in the region. The result has shown that the predominant fluctuation trigger is periodical 45-month ENSO. Meanwhile insolation fluctuation due to earth orbital position has placed second with 12- month period after ENSO occurrence. The 20-month oscillation period of QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation), periodical 6-month variation of SAO (Semi Annual Oscillation), and 6-month period of MJO (Madden Jullian Oscillation) give weaker influence on tropopause height fluctuation in the region than that of ENSO and insolation. Eigen vector distribution from principle component shows that these five oscillations are very influential and dominant in tropical west Pacific as response of interaction of the five oscillations with Walker circulation in tropical Pacific.