Analisis Faktor Penentu Integrasi Pasar Beras di Indonesia
Hidayanto, Muhammad Wawan
Hakim, Dedi Budiman
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Rice is a staple food and has a strategic role in Indonesia. Therefore, the government has to maintain rice price to be stable. Rice price stabilization will be more effectively implemented on integrated markets. The objectives of this study are (1) to analyze market integration among retail rice price at provinces in Indonesia, between retail rice price at provinces in Indonesia and wholesale rice price at Cipinang Wholesale Rice Market (PIBC), and between wholesale rice price at PIBC and international rice price; (2) to analyze the impact of rice price shock on a market to other markets; and (3) to analyze the determinants of rice market integration in Indonesia. Johansen cointegration test was used to analyze market integration while impulse response and forecast error decomposition variance were used to analyze the impact of price shock. Ordinary least squares method were also used to analyze the the determinants of rice market integration in Indonesia. Result of the study shows that retail rice price among provinces is not fully integrated. Similarly, retail rice price at provinces in Indonesia and wholesale rice price at PIBC is also not fully integrated. Market integration test between wholesale rice prices at PIBC and international rice prices shows that IR-64 II rice price at PIBC had cointegration with Thailand 15 percentage broken and Vietnam 15 percentage broken,while IR-64 III rice price at PIBC only had cointegration with Thailand 15 percentage broken rice price, but not with Vietnam 15 percentage broken. Shock on a province’s rice price had directly impact on that province’s rice price itself on early period while another market had not been affected yet. Similarly, rice price variation on a market was caused by shock on the market itself rather than by other markets. The research also found that road as transportation infrastructure is positively and significantly associated with market integration, as well as rice procurement by BULOG and percapita income. Raskin distribution is also statistically significant but associated negatively.
- MT - Economic and Management