Dampak kebijakan swasembada daging sapi terhadap kinerja ekonomi subsector peternakan di Indonesia

Abstract

Beef cattle have a strategic role in the Indonesian economy. In addition to its contribution to GDP and employment in the livestock sub-sector, the beef is also one source of animal protein. Beef consumption tends to increase over time. However, the growth of domestic beef production is slower than the growth in consumption. This has led to the increasing import. In this regard, the government has set self-sufficiency policy to encourage the growth of beef cattle and beef production. This study is aimed to: 1) analyze the impact of beef self-sufficiency policies on national beef production and performance in livestock subsector, 2) evaluate the impact of beef self-sufficiency policies on producer and consumer welfare in Indonesia and foreign exchange savings, and 3) forecasting production and demand for beef within the framework of achieving beef self-sufficiency in Indonesia. This study used econometric model with simultaneous equations and utilized time series data from 1990 – 2011 periods. Based on order condition criteria, this model is over identified. Parameter estimation used Two Stages Least Squares method. Simulation results showed that technological improvements through increasing doses of Artificial Insemination (AI), increased breeder cattle imports, and the subsidies policy of interest rate on bank loans will encourage beef cattle production and domestic beef production as well as lower import feeder cattle and beef imports. Increased beef cattle production will encourage GDP and employment in the livestock subsector. Import restrictions policy on feeder cattle and beef will increase domestic beef production but reduce the population and beef cattle production, resulting in lower GDP and employment in the livestock subsector. Combination of policies in order to achieve beef self-sufficiency will increase the social welfare and save foreign exchange. Combination policies have not been able to achieve beef self-sufficiency in Indonesia in 2014. Indonesia is expected to achieve beef self-sufficiency in 2021. Gradually imports restrictions on feeder cattle and beef and was followed by an increase in technology and the provision of breeder cattle have positive impact on the beef industry and livestock sector and the achievement of beef self-sufficiency in Indonesia.