Dynamics Model of National Salt Sufficiency.
Model Dinamik Swasembada Garam Nasional
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Salt has a strategic role as the staple food towards consumption needs and industrial needs in raw materials. The consumption needs covers all aspects in house hold consumption, cooking oil industries, fish curing industries, and other common industries such as oil industry, textile and tannery, feed, chlor alkali (CAP), and pharmacy (Deperin 2009). The potential area for salt sea bank is about 34 hectare, but only 60 percent of this area are used as productive salt sea bank. The production produced by a productive salt sea bank in Indonesia are considered very low as they cannot fulfill the needs generally. The gap between supply and demand generate high dependency towards imported salt. As a step to reduce the dependency, in 2011, the government came up with the idea of the national salt self sufficiency. The achievement of this program can be measured by the availability of consumption and industrial salt needs. This research was done to (1) build a model of the national salt supply system to measure the achievement of the national salt self sufficiency, (2) analyze the impact of this self sufficiency achievement in the national salt self sufficiency, and (3) compose an alternative policy needed as an effort to achieve the salt self sufficiency. In this research, the dynamic system approach is used. The impact of this national salt self sufficiency policy is analyzed using five scenario: (1) scenario 1 (if the achievement of the national salt self sufficiency reach 60 percent of the achievement indicator), (2) scenario 2 (if the achievement of the national salt self sufficiency reach 80 percent of the achievement indicator), (3) scenario 3 (if the achievement of the national salt self sufficiency reach 100 percent of the achievement indicator with the lower limit of extensification), (4) scenario 4 (if the achievement of the national salt self sufficiency reach 100 percent of the achievement indicator with the middle limit of extensification), (5) scenario 5 (if the achievement of the national salt self sufficiency reach 100 percent of the achievement indicator with the upper limit of extensification). In arranging the alternative policy, three scenarios are needed; (1) scenario 6: scenario 4 with the correction in the PUGAR productivity increasement policy in 97 tons/hectare, (2) scenario 7: scenario 6 with the assumption of ; all grassroots salt companies are the member of PUGAR, and (3) scenario 8: scenario 7 plus salt consumption reduction for household based on the salt intake recommendation of WHO (2007) which is 5 grams per day per capita and and the increasement of salt quality produced by the grassroots supplier so there will be no more purification needed. The analysis shown that in real condition, the supply of consumption salt fluctuated during the stimulation period. Deficit supply in extreme weather. While during normal weather, Indonesia could achieve the consumption salt self sufficiency. But the actual processing of salt in Indonesia does not support the self sufficiency program gradually. While the industrial salt supply is lack during the stimulation program. This condition happened because in actual processing, Indonesia cannot produce their own industrial salt. The national salt self sufficiency policy impact analysis shown that the policy resulted in the achievement of the consumption salt self sufficiency in 2012. The simulation through the 5 scenarios shown that, gradually, the consumption salt self sufficiency will be achieved if at least 80 percent of the indicators are achieved as well. While in industrial salt, the supplies are negative during the whole simulation. The composed alternative policy can support Indonesia to reach continuous consumption salt self sufficiency during the simulation period. While the industrial salt self sufficiency will be able to be achieved if the 8th scenario is applied, which is the increase of the grassroots salt production quality policy as it will fulfill the criteria of industrial needs. The supply in the 8th scenario shown the highest number compared to other scenarios. This is caused by the combination of policies in supply either quantity or quality and the depletion of consumption.
- MT - Economic and Management