Prediksi Cuaca Jangka Pendek Menggunakan Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Abstract

Short-range forecasting model has become an important tool to describe the complex atmospheric condition. The purpose of this research is to assess the potential of WRF output in short-range forecast. Weather forecasting method utilized in this research is WRF. Outputs of WRF model is compared with observational data of Ngurah Rai, Bali station. Solver in Microsoft Excel is used to reduce error generated in the model. This study focuses on only four output variables of WRF, namely, rainfall (CH), wind, relative humidity (RH) and temperature. The result shows rainfall and temperature are resulting from model calculation are better than the wind and relative humidity. Rainfall variable has an RMSE value of 0.84 and correlation of 0.62 while the RMSE value of the temperature is 1.09 with a correlation of 0.65. Correction process with the help of the Solver is effective in reducing the error of the following variables: temperature by 16%, wind by 62%, RH by 35% and rainfall by 87%.