Forest and Land Fires Management Strategy in Rawa Aopa Watumohai National Park Using Spatial Model

Abstract

Rawa Aopa Watumohai National Park (TNRAW) is one of the most important conservation areas in Indonesia which has unique species in Wallacea region, and an international status as a RAMSAR Site. Unfortunately, TNRAW has been disturbed by wildfire that could potentially degrade functions. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the appropriate factors that influenced the vulnerability of forest fires in TNRAW and the surrounding areas, (2) to optimize forest fires management in TNRAW through early warning and spatial modeling, (3) to formulate strategic direction to control forest fires in TNRAW. This research used the CMA (Composite Mapping Analysis) method. Based on the analysis of the 13 variables associated fuels and ignitions, it was formed 9 variables that built the hotspots density model in the study area, they were the average monthly temperature, elevation, slope, level of income, population density, land cover, the buffers of rivers, the buffers of mangrove / marine and the buffers of district centers. The factors influenced spatially vulnerability of the forest fires in the study area were socio-economic (regional income) and land cover. On the other hand, the rainfall intensity influenced temporally frequency of wildfires. Best composite model had a determination coefficient of 25.8 % and formed a polynomial model. Three classes of fires vulnerability grouped by Arc GIS 9.3 based on summary mean and standard deviation, ie low vulnerability 815.32 km² (77.51 %), middle class 92.74 km² (8.8 %) and high vulnerability 137.14 km² (13.04 %). The widest class of high vulnerability was the buffer zone of 104.86 km² (9.97 %), and the core zone just only 2.1 km² (0.2 %). According to the spatial model, the effective forest fires management needed to consider socio-economic and land cover. The priority of the forest fires management needed to be focused at the core zone and the buffer zone from the foot of Watumohai Mountains to savanna near mangrove which high vulnerability for wildfires. The chosen strategy based on Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) method by score of 5.87 was the threats analysis and diversification of forest fire control method, devided into preventif and repressive methods, such as socialization, promotion, infrastructure development, law enforcement and fire suppression.