Peranan Total Factor Productivity (TFP) dan hubungan Ekspor-Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) di sektor pertanian indonesia

Abstract

The agricultural sector has an important role in developing economy as a contribution for the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Thus, it is also important to see the usage of agricultural TFP and agricultural export related to agricultural GDP. Structural challenge caused by economic crisis is also important to be observed in terms of its influence toward variables in the agricultural sector. This research functions to: (1) Aanalyze Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in Indonesia’s agricultural sector; (2) Analyze short term and long term relations between agricultural export and GDP of the agricultural sector and other variables in Indonesia’s agricultural sector; (3) Analyze structural in Indonesia’s agricultural sector. The method used is ECM model and Chow Test. The research result shows that agricultural TFP gives the largest contribution towards the growth of agricultural output. If seen from the phases of economic growth, it is evident that during the phase before economic crisis, agricultural TFP gives the largest contribution towards agricultural GDP. During the phase of economic crisis, the negative growth of agricultural output origins from the negative agricultural TFP. But after the economic crisis, the growth of agricultural output became larger than PMA investment compared to agricultural TFP. Agricultural GDP has a different relation towards agricultural export in short term and long term. In short term, agricultural GDP one year previously (+), Agricultural TFP (-), agricultural domestic price (+) and agricultural export price (-); in long term, agricultural GDP (+), Agricultural TFP (-), and agricultural domestic price (-) have significant effects toward agricultural export. While the variables of agricultural export price and exchange rate do not have significant influence toward agricultural export. There was a structural change caused by economic crisis in 1997 which changed the short term relation parameter of agricultural export with agricultural GDP and other variables. Estimation result after added by monetary crisis dummy in 1997 shows that in short term, agricultural GDP one year previously (+), agricultural TFP (-), agricultural domestic price (+), agricultural export price (-), agricultural domestic price one year previously (+), and economic crisis dummy of 1997 (+) have significant influences toward agricultural export. Analysis of the new ECM result (short term) showst that the parameter coefficient signs of the following variables: agricultural GDP, agricultural TFP, agricultural domestic price, agricultural export price, in accordance with the hypothesis are variables with a one year lag. Meaning, that there is a lag of agricultural export in response to the influencing variables.