Analysis of land use/land cover change in Cibodas biosphere reserve area in supporting the existence of Mount Gede Pangrango national park

Abstract

An increasing number of population caused land use/land cover change in Cibodas Biosphere Reserve. One of the approach to rapidly assess land use conversion is by using remote sensing technology. Therefore, the purposes of this study are : (1) to analyze land use/land cover change in 1999 and 2011 and the factor that affecting land use/land cover changes; (2) to identify people preference about land use/land cover change that can be tolerated; (3) predicting land use/land cover allocation approach with Cellular Automata (CA) and (4) to conduct controlling scenario land use/land cover changes in the Cibodas Biosphere Reserve that can support the sustainability of Mount Gede Pangrango National Park. The result showed the form of land use in 1999 was dominated by dry field and mixed farms, amounting to 44.25% and in 2011 the dominance of dry field and mixed farms was reduced to 38.16% accompanied with an increase in settlements from 16.19% to 20.41%. Based on AHP result, land use/land cover change is caused by population growth, source of income, slope, elevation and soil type. Land use/land cover change that can be tolerated by society is changing forests into dry field and mixed farms which have a value of 0.249 or 24.9%, and from dry field and mixed farms to residential with a value of 0.206 or 20.6%. Landuse prediction in 2023 show that dry field and mixed farm is 34,34 %, forest 30.97%, settlements 23.39%, fields 11.14%, edelweis 0.08%, grass / shrub 0.05% and 0.03% of water bodies. There is three scenarios to control land use/land cover change in Cibodas Biosphere Reserve.