Study of Transmission Potential of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Based on Rainfall and Temperature in Central Java

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a viral disease which has spread throughout Indonesia over the past 25 years. Ae. aegypti is the main vector of the disease. In Indonesia, especially in Central Java, there has been an upward trend in the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Therefore some efforts to suppress an outbreak of this disease had been done by the government with focus against the vector. This research aims to determine and mapping the transmission potential (TP) of DHF in Central Java under 4 principal seasons: rainy (December- February), transition 1 (March – May), dry (June-August) and transition 2 (September – November) at 3 rainfall conditions ( below normal, normal and above normal years) using vectorial capacity (VC) method. The results show that the maximum average VC for under normal years occur on December-February, whereas for normal and above normal years its occurs on March-May. In every rainfall condition, the minimum VC occur on June-August when rainfall is minimum. Based on resulted map from this research, in coastal area of northern and southern site of Central Java which is lowland area, TP were higher than in central area which is highland. TP on city with high population such as Tegal, Semarang, and Surakarta were higher. Nevertheless, between VC and incidence rate (IR) were significant with coefficient correlation 0.057, caused by there weren’t interventions between 35 districts in Central Java to supress the number of DHF disease in case of sanitation, vector controls (fogging, aerial spraying, making abate), immunity of society, etc.