The Attack Potential Analysis of Coffee Berry Borer Using CLIMEX Model

Abstract

The Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemeus hampei Ferr.) as well known as Penggerek Buah Kopi (PBKo) has caused excessive losses in Indonesian coffee plantations. This problem need to be avoid systematically. Preventing such losses can be approached through the use of ecoclimatic prediction. Climex is an ecoclimatic computer-based program to predict the potential spread of PBKo in some certain regions. Using minimum data set and some simple functions, Climex can describe the species responses against temperature and humidity. The attack potential of the species was represented by Ecoclimatic Index (EI). The study examined prediction in three regions on the basis of different elevation, i.e., Bogor 350m asl, Kuningan 548m asl and Pacet 1130m asl. The analysis of ‘compare location’ function indicates that the climate of these three locations are suitable for the PBKo’s distribution. Pacet is the most suitable climate with highest EI value. There is no stress indication in this area so that PBKo could spread optimally. Analysis of ‘compare years’ function indicates that the spread existed from year to year. The results show a dry stress index from June to December in Kuningan area which affected a decrease of EI value and suppressed the spread of PBKo towards the lethal point. Meanwhile wet stress occurred in Bogor, although its value is too low to affect the EI value. Simulation of climate changes function shows that the attack response to the temperature changes is more varied than rainfall. This phenomenon indicates that the spread of PBKo is more sensitive against temperature changes. The use of Climex prediction could represent the actual field attack where the pattern of the actual field attack is close to the EI value.