Dynamic model of motor vehicle emissions control in Makassar
S. Mandra, Moh. Ahsan
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Makassar as a metropolitan has currently is facing the problem of rapid growth of the number of vehicle, which caused traffic jam and decrease of air quality as the result of vehicle emissions. The analysis of emission load, ambient concentration level, ambient air pollution index, estimates of social and economic impacts of pollution and scenario implementation are needed as the main goal of the research to determine the appropriate strategy of air pollution control in Makassar. The model developed in this research is consist of six steps of analysis: (1) needs analysis, (2) formulation of the problem, (3) identification of the system, (4) modeling system, (4) validation, and (6) scenario implementation. The data was collected by using a survey method such as field observations and measurements, in-depth interviews and documentation. The model simulations showed that in the early years of simulation (2011), ambient concentration value of CO, NO2, SO2 dan PM10 are still below the air quality standard. Whereas, at the end of the simulation (2026), pollutants which mostly has reached the air quality standard. The standard index of air pollutans of the entire parameters are good to medium category. The total number of cases of health problems based on dose-response analysis in 2011 to 2026 has reached 23 million cases with the economic value up to 1.5 trillion Rupiah. Application of the model scenarios such as busway, fuel gas, and combined scenarios can reduce ambient concentration level about 7.77 to 156.49 percent.