Land Use Change Model to Estimate Carbon Stock in Cisadane Watershed, Jawa Barat

Abstract

Cisadane Watershed is a very vulnerable area changes in land use due to population growth rate is relatively high, one example of the rate of population increase of Bogor district 2.81%. Changes in the amount of carbon stock is one of the effects of changes in land use. Analysis of changes in land use is done by a logistic regression model of land use maps in 2001 and 2006. Logistic regression model was obtained as many as 44 equations with the value of the coefficient of determination (R2) different. Approximately 14% of the value of R2 is less than 0.50, approximately 29% of the value of R2 between 0.50 to 0.75, and approximately 57% R2 value of more than 0.75. Coefficient of determination explains the diversity of dependent variables that can be explained by independent variables. F test results explained that all the equations obtained is the real meaning is the influence of each independent variable to the variable binding. All the equations are tested by entering all values of independent variables in each equation so that the dependent variable values obtained in the form of opportunities. Equations that can be used for prediction are those with a greater chance than 50%, there are 31 equations that meet these requirements. Prediction maps generated from the model prediction of land use map in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025. The amount of carbon stock present in Cisadane Watershed land use until the year 2025 tends to decrease resulting in increased carbon emissions into the atmosphere. This is mainly due to conversion of forest area which is the largest store of carbon stock than other land uses.