The Pattern of Occurance and Risk Factors of Avian Influenza Outbreaks on Backyard Poultry Farm in Lampung Province

Abstract

The Study of pattern of occurance and risk factors of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks can be used in formulating AI prevention and control program. The aims of this research were to detect the hotspot area and analyze pattern of AI outbreaks in dimensions of time and space during 2010–2011, identify risk factors associated with AI outbreaks on backyard poultry farm in Lampung Province. The data of AI outbreaks were collected from Balai Penyidikan dan Pengujian Veteriner Regional 3 (BPPV Regional 3) and Local Disease Crisis Center (LDCC) Lampung Province and were analyzed using SatScan version 9.1.1 and visualized using ArcGIS version 9.3.1. In addition, identification of risk factor associated with AI outbreaks was done using the Case Control Study of Observational Epidemiology. The data were collected by structured interviews in three selected districts (Bandar Lampung, Metro and Pesawaran). Data analysis was carried out in three steps, consisting of univariate, bivariate with chi-square and multivariate analysis with logistic regression. All analysis was processed with SPSS 16.0. The result of analysis showed that subdistricts of Pekalongan, Metro Barat, Metro Timur and Metro Utara were most likely cluster or the hotspot area with relative risk (RR) values of 3.53. The risk factors which contributed to AI outbreaks in Lampung Province were raising poultry whereas free ranged or combined with caged at night with odds ratio (OR) values of 8.94 (confidence interval (CI):2.85-28.02), origins of poultry from live bird markets OR of 5.18 (CI:1.8-14.92) and fenced off <75 cm OR of 5.03 (CI:1.86-13.62). It is therefore recommended that subdistricts of Pekalongan, Metro Barat, Metro Timur and Metro Utara become to priority of surveillance. Formulating AI prevention and control program must be affecting risk factors that assosiated with AI outbreaks on backyard poultry farm in Lampung Province.

Penyakit avian influenza (AI) merupakan penyakit unggas yang sangat menular dan telah menimbulkan kerugian ekonomi yang sangat besar bagi peternak. Provinsi Lampung merupakan satu diantara provinsi di Indonesia yang sampai dengan sekarang merupakan wilayah dengan kasus tinggi dan memiliki kasus suspek AI pada manusia sehingga dikategorikan sebagai wilayah dengan endemisitas dan risiko tinggi terhadap AI. Program pengendalian terhadap penyakit ini telah dilaksanakan dan menjadi program strategis nasional. Pengendalian tersebut memerlukan pendekatan yang terintegrasi berdasarkan data dan analisis epidemiologik seperti pola kejadian dan faktor risiko penyakit sehingga pengendalian AI sesuai dengan kondisi lokal Provinsi Lampung. Berdasarkan hal tersebut penelitian ini dilakukan dengan fokus pola kejadian dan faktor risiko terhadap kejadian AI pada peternakan sektor 4 di Provinsi Lampung.