Dampak pengembangan produksi bahan bakar nabati terhadap perekonomian indonesia

Abstract

The biofuel development policy in Indonesia is intended to contribute to increasing economic growth and job creation, decreasiing poverty, mitigates climate change, and improve energy security. The policy is built through Presidential Decree Number 5 in 2006. The mandate for biofuel consumption more than 5 percent in 2025. The objectives of the study were an analysis of implementation of biofuel development of production in Indonesian economy. This research applied the Recursive Dynamic General Equilibrium (RDGE) model by Indonesian Forecasting. Five simulations were used, namely, (1) increasing of biofuel demand, (2) to increase biofuel agriculture land expansion, deforestation, and capital, (3) to measure agricultural and biofuel productivity, (4) to rise international food price’s and biofuel substitute price’s, (5) to increase biofuel subsidy, and (6) to raise demand for land of palm oil and cassava. The results showed that the policy of biofuel mandate implementation would increase economic growth, rise household income, and improve carbon emission, but threatens food security and feed, declines employment in non biofuel agriculture. An increase of demand for land of palm oil and cassava would eliminate trade-off energy development, food, and feed. The suggest to government, (1) used to palm oil for biosolar and cassava for bioetanol feedstocks to substitute oil import, (2), eliminate oil subsidy to biofuel subsidy for increase biofuel research and development, and (3) developt biofuel re-export potentially.