Dampak Kebijakan Ekonomi terhadap Industri Komoditi Kelapa Sawit dan Karet Indonesia

Abstract

Subsektor perkebunan memiliki peranan yang sangat penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia, baik dilihat dari devisa yang dihasilkan, pemenuhan kebutuhan pangan pokok dan untuk kesempatan kerja. Bagi subsektor ini kelapa sawit dan karet merupakan komoditi penting. Komoditi kelapa sawit dan karet mampu menyumbang sekitar 62 persen dari total devisa yang dihasilkan oleh subsektor perkebunan. Penyerapan tenaga kerja pada usaha pengembangan komoditi ini mencapai 4.1 juta KK (Ditjenbun, 2007).

During the period 1968-2008 oil palm plantations area in Indonesia had increased with the growth rate higher than rubber plantations area, that had been 11 percent compare to one percent per year. It is assumed that economic policy has significant impact for the development Indonesian palm oil and rubber industries. The general aim of the research is to analyze the impact of various economic policies on palm oil and rubber industries. This study was conducted by formulating dynamic simultaneous equations model of palm oil and rubber industries with consisting of 44 behavioral and 18 identity equations. The Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method was used to estimate the parameters of the behavioral equations in the model. The results of research showed that there is competition in the between oil palm and natural rubber commodities in terms utilization of available natural resources. While sub-block domestic market and international market do not have a linkage between crude palm oil and natural rubber because they have different market. The historical simulation in the period of 1994–2008 showed that: (1) decreasing interest rates gave a positive impact on oil palm and rubber mature area, (2) increasing in farm input prices such as wage rate and fertilizer prices gave a negative impact on oil palm and natural rubber mature area, (3) exchange rate depreciation gave a positive impact on export price of palm oil and natural rubber, increases producer surplus and result in largest foreign earning, and (4) decreasing palm oil export tax gave a positive impact on palm oil export price.