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      Pengaruh faktor-faktor makro–mikro terhadap pertumbuhan investasi sektoral dalam era liberalisasi keuangan: analisis Q–tobin

      Macro–micro factors effects to sectoral investment growth in financial liberalization era: q-tobin analysis

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      Date
      2012
      Author
      Andati, Trias
      Siregar, Hermanto
      Sinaga, Bonar M.
      Achsani, Noer Azam
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      Abstract
      This research attempts to analyze macro and micro factors affecting the sectors’ investment growth in the era of financial liberalization. Q-Tobin ratio is used as an indicator of sectoral investment growth to provide insights into corporate investment decision. Using annual data of 64 listed company’s financial report from 2002 to 2009, the results show that the financial liberalization variables such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Investment Portfolio give the positive effects to Q-Tobin agricultural sector, otherwise to Basic and Chemical Industry and Banking sectors. There were transmition mechanisms from real sectors to financial sectors but not the other way around. Increase of financial deepening give positive effect to Q-Tobin of Basic and Chemical Industry sector and Banking, otherwise to agricultural sector. SBI has negative effect to Q-Tobin all sectors, while the effect of loan interest rates to Basic and Chemical and Banking sectors was positive. Money supply has negative effect to Q-Tobin of Basic and Chemical Industry sector and Banking. Fixed asset investment of all three sectors has same patterns of Q-Tobin, and increased from 2002 to 2009, while at the year of 2008, Q-Tobin of all sectors were experienced decrease due to financial crisis. Company’s loan give positive effect to Q-Tobin, while total assets give negative effects. Q-Tobin gives negative effect to real investment growth of Basic and Chemical Industry and Banking sectors, and also the company’s capital structure of Basic and Chemical Industry sector. Real loan interest rates give positive effect to real investment growth. Furthermore, there should be rationing of portfolio investment in agriculture sector, to prevent the funds flow from real sector to financial sector. Tobin Tax theory is suggested to be implemented in any financial transactions. Further research is suggested to analyze the effect of financial liberalization on agricultural sector private company’s investment.
       
      Dalam perekonomian terbuka, liberalisasi keuangan dapat mendorong aliran modal (kapital), sehingga pada tingkat suku bunga tertentu, sumber dana eksternal dapat bersaing dengan sumber dana internal. Liberalisasi keuangan di Indonesia diawali saat reformasi sektor keuangan tahun 1988, 1990 dan 1991 untuk meningkatkan mobilisasi dana dari individu (penabung) demi mendorong laju investasi pada sektor produktif melalui peran perantara (intermediaries), yang berlanjut saat terjadi krisis keuangan dan moneter di beberapa negara Asia. Bila dilihat dari realisasi investasi domestik (PMDN, Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri) pada periode 1990-2008 meningkat sepuluh kali (dari Rp 2 398.6 miliar menjadi Rp 20 363.4 miliar) dan nilai Penanaman Modal Asing (FDI, Foreign Direct Investment) meningkat duapuluh kali (dari US$ 706 juta menjadi US$ 14 871.4). Namun, pertumbuhan investasi tahunan Indonesia cenderung mengalami penurunan, dari 14.7 persen (2004) menjadi 2 persen (2007), meskipun tahun 2009 menunjukkan peningkatan. Selain itu, terdapat pola pertumbuhan yang tidak searah dari realisasi investasi PMDN berdasarkan sektor. Pada sektor primer, terjadi penurunan nilai realisasi investasi hampir seperempatnya dari Rp 5 577.2 miliar (2005) menjadi Rp 640 miliar (2008), sementara untuk industri sekunder misalnya makanan terjadi peningkatan hampir dua kali lipat dari Rp 4 490.8 miliar (2005) menjadi Rp 8 192 miliar di tahun 2008 (BKPM, Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal, 2008). Pada sektor keuangan, terdapat peningkatan nilai nominal transaksi saham dari Rp 21.7 triliun (1995) menjadi Rp 300 triliun (2008). Peningkatan transaksi pasar modal sebagai alternatif sumber pembiayaan bagi swasta, seharusnya memberikan peluang bagi perusahaan untuk melakukan investasi stok kapital. Namun, perkembangan sektor keuangan lambat laun meninggalkan sektor riil, dan telah menjadi bisnis tersendiri. Pasar keuangan tidak lagi sekedar mekanisme untuk menyediakan tabungan bagi investor sektor produksi, sehingga ada kecenderungan kurang terkait dengan investasi jangka panjang sektor produksi.
       
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      http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/55393
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