Regional sustainable development in the Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province (case studies regional economic transformation tin-based mining)

Abstract

As a commodity that can not be renewed, tin reserves will be exhausted and certainly can not be exploited anymore at Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province. According to USGS data, measured tin reserves in 2005 was 900,000 metric tons and will be exhausted by 2020 if the productivity of tin average is 60,000 tons / year. Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province have to prepare for the end of the tin economic era. The good preparation, therefore, should be done. This study examines the economic transformation of the Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province face the end of the tin in the province. The results of descriptive analysis showed that the process of economic transformation already under way in the Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province, namely the tendency of the tin no longer provides the largest contribution to GDP Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province in 2005. Although tin was increased in subsequent years, the tendency has decreased and replaced by the industrial sector at the top position followed by the agricultural sector. This study uses a dynamic system to analyze the process of economic transformation of the Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province, using 2005 as base year, as well as using a data base IRIO 2005 as the base data in dynamic system simulation. The simulation results show that the optimal tin mine production should be reduced to about 32,000 tons per year, so the presence of tin mining can be maintained until the year 2032. The analysis showed that the dominant sectors, agriculture and industrial, have the highest value as a replacement mining sector. The analysis highlights that the agricultural and industrial sectors in the Province of the Kepulauan Bangka Belitung is not necessarily able to replace the tin sector when no tin sector contribution to the economy. It's Require considerable time to restore the economy, because it takes development policy of industrial and agricultural sectors as a substitute for tin. The simulation results show that if agricultural and industrial investmentwas increased when the tin mines stop production, it takes a long time to restore the economy to its original position. Therefore, the development of industrial and agricultural sectors might be performed well before the year 2033 when the tin mines run out. The process of model optimization indicate that the presence of tin can be maintained until the year 2033, so that there is still enough time for the Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province to prepare for the end of the tin mining era, by developing the agricultural and industrial sectors.

Perekonomian Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung selama satu abad lebih sangat tergantung kepada keberadaan timah. Sebagai komoditas yang tidak dapat diperbaharui, timah cadangan dipastikan akan habis dan tidak dapat dieksploitasi lagi di Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung. Menurut data USGS, cadangan timah terukur pada tahun 2005 adalah 900.000 ton dan akan habis pada tahun 2020 jika produktivitas timah rata-rata 60.000 ton per tahun.Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung harus mempersiapkan diri menghadapi berakhirnya era ekonomi timah. Karena itu persiapan yang matang harus dilakukan. Penelitian ini mengkaji transformasi perekonomian Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung menghadapi berakhirnya era timah di provinsi ini. Hasil analisis deskriptif menunjukkan bahwa proses transformasi perekonomian sudah mulai berlangsung di provinsi Kep. Bangka Belitung, yaitu adanya kecenderungan bahwa timah tidak lagi memberikan sumbangan terbesar terhadap PDRB Provinsi Bangka Belitung pada tahun 2005, walaupun sempat meningkat pada tahun-tahun berikutnya, tetapi kecenderungannya mengalami penurunan dan diganti oleh sektor industri pada posisi teratas disusul sektor pertanian. Penelitian ini menggunakan sistem dinamis untuk menganalisa proses transformasi perekonomian Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung, dengan menggunakan tahun dasar 2005, serta menggunakan data base IRIO 2005 sebagai data dasar dalam simulasi sistem dinamik. Hasil simulasi memperlihatkan bahwa produksi tambang timah yang optimal harus dikurangi menjadi sekitar 32.000 ton pertahun, sehingga keberadaan tambang timah dapat dipertahankan hingga tahun 2033.