Dampak liberalisasi perdagangan dan perubahan iklim pada komoditi pangan di berbagai negara terhadap makro dan sektoral ekonomi Indonesia: pendekatan model ekonomi keseimbangan umum

Abstract

The objectives of study are to analysis: (1) the impact of climate change on agriculture commodities productivity in various countries including Indonesia; (2) the impact of trade liberalization of agriculture sector on macro economic performance in main producer and importer of agriculture commodities and particularly on macro and economic sector of Indonesia; and (3) the combination impact of trade liberalization and climate change in agriculture commodities on macro economic performance in producer and importer countries and specific impact on macro and economic sector of Indonesia. Econometric model is used to estimate the impact of climate change on productivity of agriculture commodities at region or country level including Indonesia, and the multiregional, multisector computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the impact of trade liberalization on macro and economic sector in main producer and importer of agriculture commodities including Indonesia. The similar tools analysis was also used to analysis the combination impact of trade liberalization and climate change on macro and economic sector in main producer and importer of agriculture commodities. Climate change affected to reduce productivity of paddy rice, wheat and maize in all countries except Russia. Climate change gave negative impact and more dominant to influence gross domestic product in all countries than trade liberalization. Developed countries gain from trade liberalization in agriculture sector for theirs gross domestic product, export, and welfare. In contrary, developing countries including Indonesia lost for their welfare, trade balance and investment. Furthermore, the combination impact of trade liberalization and climate change will push relocation of input factor from agriculture sector to manufacture sector in Indonesia, and it will increase urbanization. The combination impact of climate change and trade liberalization also effected to decrease of employment in all agriculture sectors. The Government of Indonesia should establish the adaptation strategy by diversifying local food consumption to compensate the decreasing of global food production. The Government of Indonesia should increase implementation of non tariff measures in agriculture sector to reduce the potential lost as a results of agriculture sector liberalization. Both of the government and private should improve agriculture sector infrastructure such as irrigation facilities, on and off farm technology to reduce the impact of climate change.

Selama tiga dekade terakhir isu perubahan iklim (climate change) sudah menjadi salah satu isu utama pada setiap pertemuan internasional. Laporan Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 memprediksikan peningkatan suhu bumi rata-rata 2,8 0C selama abad 21 disebabkan oleh meningkatnya konsentrasi CO2 Berdasarkan beberapa hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa perubahan iklim menyebabkan perubahan produktivitas di sektor pertanian, kehutanan, perikanan dan tenaga kerja yang pada akhirnya membawa konsekuensi kepada kondisi ekonomi maupun sosial dalam jangka panjang (Zhai Fan et al, 2009). Khusus di sektor pertanian perubahan cuaca dan iklim yang sangat mempengaruhi produktivitas antara lain perubahan suhu dan pola curah hujan, maupun dampak resultan dari ketersediaan air, pestisida, penyakit dan terjadinya cuaca yang ekstrim (Zhai Fan et al, 2009). Sektor pertanian di beberapa negara berkembang seperti India, Brazil, Afrika Selatan, dan Indonesia diperkirakan juga akan dipengaruhi oleh terjadinya perubahan iklim tersebut. . Selama 140 tahun terakhir (1840-2005), suhu global terus meningkat, demikian pula 100 tahun ke depan rata-rata suhu global diperkirakan terus meningkat.