Analisis dampak kebijakan perberasan Indonesia: Model disagregasi wilayah dan pola panen

Abstract

The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of rice policy on rice economy based on harvested pattern in national and regional level. For that purpose, disaggregation data are collected by months and regions (Sumatera, Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan and Sulawesi). Econometric model is formulated as a simultaneous equations and estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. Rice policy aims not only to protect producer and domestic prices stabilization but also to provide rice to specified target-group of consumers through reserves and distribution mechanism. The results revealed that the model is able to well discribe the variation impact of rice policy in national and regional level. Furtheremore, this result supported previous finding indicated that the rice producer in some regions are unlikely benefited from the rice policy especialy during harvested period. Therefore, government intervention in terms of stabilizing price needs to be reviewed to reach it’s targeted objectives.