Dampak volatilitas variabel ekonomi terhadap kinerja sektor industri pengolahan dan makroekonomi indonesia

Abstract

The manufacturing sector has a prominent contribution on national economic growth. Aside from being able to provide higher added value, it is also significant in the formation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), foreign exchange, and employment. Moreover, the growth of manufacturing sector implies a relatively large multiplier effect on the economic growth. The dynamics of the economy that are reflected in the fluctuations of economic variables generally affect the performance of manufacturing sector and macroeconomic condition. In respect to the background, the purpose of this study is to analyze the volatility of economic variables and their impact on manufacturing sector and macroeconomic performance. The economic variables analyzed are oil price, export prices of manufacturing, real interest rate and real devaluation. The analytical methods used are the ARCH-GARCH model and Recursive Dynamic CGE model. Set of economic variables that are analyzed reveal that volatility tends to vary over time (time varying). In addition, the impacts also vary among industries. The volatility of world oil price and real interest rate has a tendency to provide negative influence on the Indonesian manufacturing sector and macroeconomic performance. Meanwhile, the volatility of industrial export prices and real devaluation causes a relatively different effect. Manufacturing sector is relatively susceptible to volatility of economic variables. Nevertheless, advanced durability against shock volatility performed by the manufacturing sector which tend to have linkages with agricultural sector, such as processed food, fertilizer and pesticide. As for the group of export-oriented industry, volatility tends to reduce export .

Sektor industri memiliki peran penting bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Selain mampu memberikan nilai tambah yang lebih tinggi terhadap produk antara, sektor ini juga berperan penting dalam pembentukan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), penghasil devisa dan penyerapan tenaga kerja. Disamping itu, pertumbuhan sektor industri pengolahan juga memberikan multiplier effect (efek pengganda) yang relatif besar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Namun demikian, dinamika yang terjadi dalam perekonomian nasional ataupun global seringkali menyebabkan penurunan kinerja sektor industri pengolahan. Kenaikan harga minyak di pasar dunia, krisis keuangan global hingga penguatan rupiah merupakan dinamika yang terjadi dalam perekonomian belakangan ini. Perubahan yang cukup signifikan pada berbagai variabel ekonomi tersebut ditunjukan dengan peningkatan volatilitas. Berangkat dari pemikiran tersebut maka permasalahan penelitian yang dikaji adalah bagaimana tingkat volatilitas suatu variabel ekonomi dan bagimana dampak volatilitas tersebut terhadap kinerja sektor industri pengolahan dan makroekonomi Indonesia.