| dc.description.abstract | The deveIopment of purse seine fishety represent one of the alternatives h c h can be conducted as an effort to increase fishery product. Various aspects must be considered in the development of purse seine fishery, such as biological, technological, social and economical aspects (Biotecnosocionomic) representing basic course of studv and compilation mdel of the development of sustainable purse seine fishery (SISBANGPUR). The model expected to be one of the elernentan, concept of catch fishery management at Tomini bay. In model compilation of SISBANGPUR, data and information from each system performer and other stakeholder was collected observation and survey method through interviewed with questionnaires. The number of purse seine fishery as a research object are ten unit with 12.75 GT to 17.96 GT of weight, nine owner choosen by sensus sampling and 40 fisherman was chmsen by purposive sampiing. Data analysis consisting of calculation of everlasting potency and optimum effort using Surplus Prduction method: optimation technique by LP method; financial analysis of fishing effort by NPV, net B/C and IRR methods; policy analysis of development using AHP method and compilation of model using system modelling method. The fishing effort performance at P a r i ~M outong District, Tomini Bay obtained through simulation used LINDO software with scenario that estimated in the year of 2003, representing estimated the possibilip of fishing effort growth for one year forwards based on the development of the year 2002. Assumed that 100% of both types of strive to be transferred to become purse seine effort which justify with LP Winston method, hence based on the optimation analysis result, the addition of purse seine strive arrest can be optimize to the amount of 78 units with optimal advantage equal to Rp. 9.002.750.000. Validation test of SISBAXGPUR model showed that the value of absolute mean error (AME) equal to P= 0.057, absolute variation error (.AVE) equal to P = 0.073, the value of Utheil Coefficient equal to P = 0.044 having a meaning that there is no differences between simulation and actual value. Durbin Watson result test (DW-TEST) equal to 1 -96 indicating that deviation pattern bv fluctuatively less sharply, while value of Kalman Filter (KF) equal to 0.497 (KF4.50) indicate that uniformity between simulation to the actual was a little below the actual. The dynamic of model performance before and after examination of sensitivity model by using trend function showed periodically improvement follow the asymphtotic pattern during 25 year. This phenomenon indicated that functional intervention bv using trend function was effective enough and adaptive, this is showed from reference value before and after examination were relatively the same. | id |
