Dampak kebijakan makroekonomi terhadap ketahanan pangan nasional

Abstract

In general this research aimed to study macroeconomic impact on food security, while special aim is to develop an econometric model which is integrated both macro and micro aspects for Indonesian economy that affect food security, to analyze macroeconomic policy impact on national food security. and to analyze various alternative strategic policy in the future especially in agricultural sector that could improve national food security. The econometric model was developed to set up a connection between macroeconomic policy and food security. The Model was divided into four blocks that is: production, consumption, and indicator outcome for food security and macroeconomic blocks which estimated by using 2 SLS method. 1be validation model result showed that 64 equatimfs or 94 percent have UTheil (U) value below 0.3. The biggest value of U is 0.503. The validation model result also indicated that there are 58 or 85 percent of 68 equations on the model have Mean Percentage Error value below 30 percent, and 51 equations or 75 percent have Root Mean Squares Percentage Error (RMSPE) value below 30 percent Based on that, it is showed in generally that structure and identity equations in this model have good ptediction in historical simulation.