Analisis keterkaitan ekonomi makro, perdagangan internasional dan pertanian di Indonesia: aplikasi vector error correction model

Abstract

In general the aim of this study is to investigate both short-run and long-run relationships among macroeconomy, international trade and agriculture in Indonesia. Under such circumstances, the specific goals of this research are: (1) to analyze which economic blocks that have most affected by instability, as well as producing instability in the economy, (2) to analyze determinants of inflation in agriculture and non agriculture prices both from demand side and supply side, (3) to analyze impact of policies that inflating agriculture and non agriculture prices to growth and employment in both agriculture and non agriculture sectors, and (4) to analyze which variable and economic blocks that can produce an important shock to export and import demand of commodities in both agriculture and non agriculture sectors. Quantitative methods that are used in this study are Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse Response Analysis and Granger Causality Test. Data used in this research from several sources such as Bank Indonesia, BPS Statistic, International Financial Statistic and CEre data Company Limited., series data from first mountly of 1993 (1993:01) up to the last mountly of2002 (2002:12). The results show that commodity demand, financial assets demand and non agriculture production are the main source of instability in ' the economy of Indonesia. Inflation both in agriculture and non agriculture are not related to excess demand but generated by the movement in input price, so inflation can be concluded from supply side of the economy. In the agriculture sector, production (output) and capital are responsive to change in the output price. This mean that inflating the output price effectively help generate output and new investment in this sector. In the non agriculture sector, production (output) and employment are responsive to change in the output price. This mean that inflating the output price effectively help generate output and employment in the non agriculture sector. Nevertheless because shock in price can be sources of spillover to all blocks of economy, so policies that can inflating the price in agriCUlture and non agriculture are not recommended as first priority policy in solution of unemployment problem. To solve unemployment problem specifically for agricultural sector, government should apply cost strategy such as subsidy policy of input price.

Secara umum penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan jangka panjang dan jangka pendek antara ekonomi makro, perdagangan internasional dan sektor pertanian di Indonesia. Adapun tujuan khusus penelitian adalah: (1) menganalisis sektor atau blok ekonomi yang menjadi sumber instabilitas dalam perekonomian dan sektor/blok ekonomi yang mempunyai kemampuan tertinggi dalam mentransmisikan instabilitasnya kesektor/błok lain, (2) menganalisis faktor penentu inflasi harga-harga pertanian dan non pertanian dari sisi permintaan dan dari sisi suplai, (3) menganalisis dampak kebijakan yang berakibat kenaikan harga pertanian terhadap pertumbuhan, penyerapan kerja (employment) dan investasi di sektor pertanian dan non pertanian, dan (4) menganalisis variabel-variabel ekonomi dan instabilitas sektor/blok ekonomi yang menjadi sumber guncangan penting penentu permintaan ekspor dan impor pertanian dan non pertanian.