Dampak Kebijakan Ekonomi terhadap Penawaran dan Permintaan Tepung Terigu di Indonesia

Abstract

The objectives of the research are (1) to analyze factors influencing supply and demand of wheat flour in lndonesia (domestic market), and (2) to evaluate impacts of economic policies related to the supply of and demand for wheat flour, producer surplus and consumer surplus at domestic markets. kets. T l ~ ere search used time series data, from 1980 to 1999 and processed with simultaneous equation model and 2SLS techque, followed by model validation for policy simulations analysis and welfare analysis. The results of tlus research show that import wheat grain is influenced by production wheat flour, exchange rate, population, income, and free import policy. The production wheat flour is influencecl by import wheat grain, import wheat flour, wage, interest rate, demand of wheat flour, economic crisis, and lag production. Import wheat flour of Indonesia is influenced and responsive to price wheat flour, exchange rate, income, and free import policy. The market structure of wheat flour is oligopsony. The governance policies such as increasing interest rate, wage, import resulting the decrease of welfare; while devaluation policy ensuing increasing of welfare from increasing producers surplus.