Tipologi Perkembangan Wilayah di Kawasan Metropolitan Kedungsepur, Jawa Tengah

Abstract

Kawasan Metropolitan Kedungsepur menunjukkan dinamika pembangunan yang tidak merata, ditandai oleh dominasi Kota Semarang sebagai pusat pertumbuhan dan kesenjangan yang persisten terhadap wilayah penyangga. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis tingkat perkembangan, laju pertumbuhan, dan ketimpangan wilayah per aspek maupun agregat, serta mengidentifikasi tipologi wilayah sebagai dasar arahan kebijakan pembangunan. Pendekatan yang digunakan meliputi analisis skalogram untuk menghasilkan Indeks Pembangunan Daerah (IPD), analisis laju pertumbuhan, ketimpangan melalui Indeks Theil entropy, serta klasterisasi K-means secara per aspek (sosial, ekonomi, lingkungan) dan agregat berbasis data Podes BPS 2018 dan 2024 pada 92 kecamatan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa perkembangan wilayah belum meningkat secara menyeluruh, ditandai oleh penurunan rata-rata IPD sosial, lingkungan, dan agregat, sedangkan ekonomi relatif stabil, dengan struktur wilayah core–periphery antara Kota Semarang, Salatiga dan wilayah timur kawasan. Laju pertumbuhan tertinggi ditemukan pada aspek ekonomi (0,16), sedangkan terendah pada aspek sosial ( -0,22) akibat pertambahan penduduk yang melampaui penambahan fasilitas, dengan penurunan terbesar terkonsentrasi pada kecamatan-kecamatan Kota Semarang. Ketimpangan antarkecamatan menunjukkan kecenderungan konvergensi (Indeks Theil agregat: 0,122 ? 0,089) dengan sumber ketimpangan yang semakin didominanasi komponen within-group (51,23% ? 55,67%), namun penurunan tersebut lebih disebabkan melemahnya kecamatan inti dibandingkan percepatan wilayah tertinggal. Klasterisasi K-means menghasilkan tiga tipologi wilayah yang persisten, diantaranya pusat pertumbuhan utama (urban), penyangga berkembang (peri-urban), dan pelayanan dasar/tertinggal (rural). Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya pendekatan analisis wilayah yang terdiferensiasi per aspek maupun secara agregat sebagai landasan perencanaan pembangunan metropolitan yang berkeadilan dan berkelanjutan.

The Kedungsepur Metropolitan Area exhibits uneven development dynamics, marked by the dominance of Semarang City as the primary growth center and persistent disparities in the surrounding buffer regions. This study aims to analyze the level of regional development, growth rate, and regional inequality both per aspect and in aggregate, as well as to identify regional typologies as a basis for development policy direction. The approach employed includes scalogram analysis to generate the Regional Development Index (RDI), growth rate analysis, inequality analysis using the Theil entropy index, and K-means clustering performed both per aspect (social, economic, environmental) and in aggregate, based on Village Potential (Podes) data from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) for 2018 and 2024 across 92 districts. The results show that regional development has not increased across all aspects, as indicated by a decline in the mean RDI for the social, environmental, and aggregate, while the economic aspect remained relatively stable, with a core-periphery structure formed among Semarang City, Salatiga City, and the eastern part of the region. The highest growth rate was found in the economic aspect (0.16), whereas the lowest was found in the social aspect (-0.22) because population growth outpaced the addition of facilities, with the largest declines concentrated in districts within Semarang City. Inter-district inequality in the Kedungsepur region shows a converging trend (aggregate Theil index: 0.122 ? 0.089), with inequality increasingly dominated by the within-group component (51.23% ? 55.67%); however, this decline was caused more by the weakening of core districts than by the acceleration of underdeveloped areas. K-means clustering produced three persistent regional typologies: the primary growth center (urban), the developing buffer zone (peri-urban), and the basic-service/underdeveloped zone (rural). These findings underscore the importance of a differentiated regional analysis approach both per aspect and in aggregate as a foundation for equitable and sustainable metropolitan development planning.