Strategi Pengembangan Industri Bioetanol Sagu dengan Penerapan Prinsip Biorefinery di Kabupaten Kepulauan Meranti

Abstract

Ketergantungan Indonesia pada bahan bakar fosil mendorong pemerintah menetapkan target penyediaan bioetanol 1,2 juta kiloliter per tahun melalui Peraturan Presiden Nomor 40 Tahun 2023, guna mendukung mandatori E5 dan rencana E10 pada 2030. Namun, kapasitas produksi fuel-grade nasional hanya mencakup kurang dari 6% dari kebutuhan nasional. Sagu (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.) di Kabupaten Kepulauan Meranti berpotensi mendukung pengembangan bioetanol karena memiliki produktivitas pati yang tinggi dan dapat tumbuh di lahan gambut melalui sistem paludikultur. Meskipun memiliki potensi besar, pengembangan industrinya memerlukan strategi yang mengintegrasikan aspek teknis, lingkungan, ekonomi, dan kelembagaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan merumuskan strategi pengembangan industri bioetanol berbasis sagu dengan penerapan prinsip biorefinery melalui enam analisis: (1) potensi bahan baku dan ketersediaan lahan berbasis GIS; (2) neraca massa dan energi sistem biorefinery skala industri 50 kL/hari; (3) penilaian dampak lingkungan dengan Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) gate-to-gate tiga skenario energi; (4) analisis kelayakan tekno-ekonomi berbasis Discounted Cash Flow; (5) pemetaan struktur pemangku kepentingan dengan Interpretative Structural Modelling (ISM); dan (6) perumusan strategi SWOT-TOWS-QSPM. Hasil analisis spasial mengidentifikasi 130.170 ha lahan sesuai sagu, terdiri atas 55.433 ha zona pangan dan 74.737 ha zona energi, dengan potensi bioetanol sebesar 271–370 juta liter/tahun. Tren luas panen dan produksi pati 2014–2024 menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang konsisten (231,49 ha/tahun; R²=0,917), dengan produktivitas meningkat dari 5,19 menjadi 6,59 ton/ha. Neraca massa-energi menunjukkan bahwa sistem biorefinery terintegrasi yang memanfaatkan co-product padat sagu dan biogas stillage mampu memenuhi kebutuhan energi pabrik secara internal. Hasil LCA menunjukkan bahwa skenario biorefinery terintegrasi (S3-BES) menurunkan Global Warming Potential sebesar 89% (dari 1,74 menjadi 0,19 kg CO2-eq/L) dan deplesi fosil sebesar 91%, yang divalidasi melalui simulasi Monte Carlo dengan 10.000 iterasi. Analisis tekno-ekonomi menunjukkan hanya S3-BES yang layak dengan NPV USD 6,50 juta, IRR 15,11%, payback period 5,8 tahun, dan Minimum Selling Price USD 0,52/L. Analisis ISM menempatkan Pemerintah Pusat sebagai aktor penggerak utama dalam pengembangan industri bioetanol sagu dengan Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral sebagai pembuat kebijakan, sedangkan integrasi SWOT–TOWS–QSPM menghasilkan 16 strategi prioritas yang berfokus pada pengembangan biorefinery, penguatan kelembagaan dan pembiayaan hijau, pengelolaan paludikultur, serta diversifikasi produk. Penelitian ini menghasilkan kerangka analisis terintegrasi yang menghubungkan analisis spasial, neraca massa dan energi, LCA, TEA, ISM, serta SWOT–TOWSQSPM dalam penyusunan strategi pengembangan industri bioetanol berbasis sagu di lahan gambut tropis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan prinsip biorefinery menjadi dasar untuk mencapai kelayakan teknis, lingkungan, dan ekonomi, sedangkan keberhasilan implementasinya bergantung pada penguatan kelembagaan, dukungan pembiayaan, serta kebijakan yang terintegrasi.

Indonesia's dependence on fossil fuels has prompted the government to establish a national bioethanol supply target of 1.2 million kiloliters per year through Presidential Regulation No. 40 of 2023 to support the E5 mandate and the planned E10 implementation by 2030. However, national fuel-grade bioethanol production capacity currently accounts for less than 6% of national demand. Sago (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.) in the Meranti Islands Regency has the potential to support bioethanol development due to its high starch productivity and its ability to grow on peatlands under a paludiculture system. Despite this potential, industrial development requires a strategy that integrates technical, environmental, economic, and institutional aspects. This study aimed to formulate a strategy for developing a sago-based bioethanol industry through the application of biorefinery principles using six analyses: (1) GIS-based assessment of feedstock potential and land availability; (2) mass and energy balance of a 50 kL/day industrial-scale biorefinery system; (3) environmental impact assessment using gate-to-gate Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) under three energy scenarios; (4) techno-economic feasibility analysis based on Discounted Cash Flow; (5) stakeholder structure mapping using Interpretative Structural Modelling (ISM); and (6) strategy formulation using SWOT-TOWS-QSPM. The spatial analysis identified 130,170 ha of land suitable for sago cultivation, comprising 55,433 ha of food-production zones and 74,737 ha of energy zones, with a bioethanol production potential of 271–370 million liters/year. Trends in harvested area and starch production from 2014 to 2024 showed consistent growth (231.49 ha/year; R² = 0.917), with productivity increasing from 5.19 to 6.59 tons/ha. The mass and energy balance demonstrated that an integrated biorefinery system utilizing solid sago co-products and stillage-derived biogas could meet the plant's energy requirements internally. The LCA results showed that the integrated biorefinery scenario (S3-BES) reduced Global Warming Potential by 89% (from 1.74 to 0.19 kg CO2-eq/L) and fossil depletion by 91%, as validated through a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations. The techno-economic analysis indicated that only the S3-BES scenario was economically feasible, with an NPV of USD 6.50 million, an IRR of 15.11%, a payback period of 5.8 years, and a Minimum Selling Price of USD 0.52/L. The ISM analysis identified the Central Government as the primary driver of the development of the sago-based bioethanol industry, with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources serving as the key policymaking institution. Meanwhile, the integration of SWOT-TOWS-QSPM generated 16 priority strategies focusing on biorefinery development, institutional strengthening, green financing, paludiculture management, and product diversification. This study developed an integrated analytical framework that links spatial analysis, mass and energy balance, LCA, TEA, ISM, and SWOT-TOWS-QSPM to formulate a development strategy for a sago-based bioethanol industry in tropical peatlands. The findings demonstrate that applying biorefinery principles provides a foundation for achieving technical, environmental, and economic feasibility, while successful implementation depends on institutional strengthening, financing support, and integrated policy measures.