| dc.description.abstract | This study aimed to estimate the economic value of mangrove ecosystem services, simulate mangrove ecosystem management scenarios using a System Dynamics approach, and formulate management strategies based on the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) approach in the Mangrove Munjang Area, Kurau Barat Village, Central Bangka Regency, Bangka Belitung Islands Province. The study employed a quantitative approach by integrating economic valuation, System Dynamics, and ISM analyses. The economic value of mangrove ecosystem services was estimated using the use value approach, consisting of direct use value estimated through the Market Price Method and the estimated economic value of carbon sequestration services using the Benefit Transfer Method through the Unit Value Transfer approach. The System Dynamics model was used to simulate two management scenarios, namely the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and the intervention scenario during the 2025–2045 simulation period, while ISM was applied to identify priority management strategies based on expert judgments and stakeholder perspectives.
The results show that the economic value of mangrove ecosystem services in the Munjang Mangrove Area was estimated at IDR 2,537,351,931 per year, comprising direct use value from the fisheries sector of IDR 2,240,504,000 per year and an estimated economic value of carbon sequestration services of IDR 296,847,931 per year. The System Dynamics simulation indicates that under the BAU scenario, existing management conditions result in a declining trend in mangrove area, accompanied by decreases in fish production, carbon sequestration capacity, and ecosystem economic benefits throughout the simulation period. In contrast, the intervention scenario, which incorporates increased rehabilitation efforts and a reduction in the rate of land-cover change, produces a more favorable system response than the BAU scenario. Although the mangrove area continues to show a declining trend during the early simulation period, the effects of rehabilitation become increasingly evident around 2036. Subsequently, mangrove area, fish production, carbon sequestration, and economic benefits gradually increase toward the end of the simulation period. The ISM analysis indicates that mangrove ecosystem management should prioritize strengthening policies, improving institutional capacity, providing financial support for conservation, and enhancing community capacity in mangrove management. Therefore, the local government, Munjang Mangrove Area managers, and local communities should strengthen rehabilitation, area protection, and sustainable mangrove utilization through community- and fisher-based activities, including mangrove seedling nurseries, tilapia aquaculture, and mangrove crab farming. In addition, the Central Bangka Regency Government should implement key programs to support sustainable mangrove ecosystem management, including coastal rehabilitation and protection, the development of innovative mangrove ecotourism, particularly in Kurau Barat Village, and the integration of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and carbon economic value policies into the Regional Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMD). | |
