MCDM-based Framework Integrating Forest Resilience and Javan Endemic Trees to Support Conservation and EFT in East Java

Abstract

Java Island harbors exceptional plant endemism, including approximately 150 endemic tree species, yet this biodiversity faces mounting threats from forest loss, habitat fragmentation, and climate change. Indonesia's Ecological Fiscal Transfer scheme (TAPE) was introduced to incentivize local governments toward improved environmental performance; however, current allocation still relies on administrative or area-based indicators rather than measurable ecological information. This study aimed to develop an integrated Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) framework combining species distribution modelling, forest resilience assessment, and socio-economic considerations to support TAPE prioritization. Conducted between November 2022 and June 2025, the research comprised three sequential phases. First, distributions of 33 verified Javan endemic tree species were modelled island-wide using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) based on GBIF occurrence records, generating species richness and Habitat Representative Score (HRS) indicators. Second, forest resilience in East Java was quantified through temporal autocorrelation of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index time-series (2000–2020), resulting a Forest Resilience Index (FRI). Third, ecological indicators (species richness, HRS, FRI) were integrated with socio-economic indicators—Human Development Index, Human Impact Index, Disaster Risk Index, Gross Regional Domestic Product, and land cost—using PROMETHEE-II with equal baseline weighting. Models achieved strong predictive performance (AUC 0.85–0.95; TSS 0.62–0.77), identifying three environmental niche groups and projecting habitat contraction with upward elevational shifts under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Habitat representativeness peaked in southern East Java, while Ponorogo showed the highest species richness. Forest resilience varied substantially (FRI 0.568–0.963), with 63.2% of districts classified as moderately resilient. PROMETHEE-II integration stratified all 38 districts into three priority tiers, distinguishing areas suited for performance-based incentives, capacity-building support, and restoration-focused intervention. These findings demonstrate that combining ecological and socio-economic evidence yields a more comprehensive, transparent basis for fiscal allocation than conventional area-based approaches, offering a replicable foundation for evidence-based conservation planning within provincial Ecological Fiscal Transfer programs.