Fenomena Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Inflasi : Pengujian Konvergensi di Indonesia Dampak Krisis Pandemi

Abstract

Pandemi COVID-19 mendorong Bank Indonesia menerapkan kebijakan moneter nonkonvensional melalui Quantitative Easing (QE) yang meningkatkan likuiditas perekonomian. Namun demikian, selama pandemi terjadi fenomena ketidakselarasan antara pertumbuhan uang beredar, inflasi, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Perubahan pola inflasi, percepatan deflasi pasca hari besar keagamaan, serta disrupsi aktivitas ekonomi menimbulkan pertanyaan mengenai hubungan kausal antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta dampaknya terhadap proses konvergensi regional di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi, menguji proses dan kecepatan konvergensi ekonomi serta inflasi, dan mengidentifikasi determinan konvergensi berdasarkan pendekatan teori kuantitas uang dengan mempertimbangkan dampak krisis pandemi dan efek spasial. Penelitian menggunakan data panel 90 kabupaten/kota di Indonesia periode 2018–2022 yang mencakup periode sebelum, selama, dan setelah pandemi COVID-19. Hubungan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan inflasi dianalisis menggunakan model panel. Pengujian konvergensi dilakukan melalui pendekatan sigma convergence, beta convergence, dan club convergence dengan metode Nonlinear Least Squares (NLS), Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), serta Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation (QMLE) pada model panel spasial dinamis. Determinan konvergensi dianalisis menggunakan variabel yang merepresentasikan modal, keterbukaan ekonomi, transportasi, teknologi, pengeluaran pemerintah daerah, kebijakan moneter, likuiditas daerah, dan risiko pandemi COVID-19. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pandemi COVID-19 berperan dalam memengaruhi dinamika pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. Selama pandemi COVID-19, hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan ekonomi mendorong inflasi, dan sebaliknya. Dampak pandemi lebih banyak bekerja melalui perubahan aktivitas ekonomi riil, mobilitas masyarakat, dan perilaku ekonomi dibandingkan melalui mekanisme harga secara langsung. Pengujian konvergensi ekonomi menunjukkan tidak terdapat single convergence club, melainkan terbentuk sepuluh klub konvergensi dengan dua belas kabupaten/kota yang masih divergen. Kecepatan konvergensi ekonomi relatif lambat pada model absolut, tetapi meningkat dari sekitar 3 persen menjadi 8 persen setelah mempertimbangkan faktor-faktor penentu dan heterogenitas spasial. Modal, keterbukaan ekonomi, dan transportasi berperan positif terhadap konvergensi ekonomi, sedangkan pandemi COVID-19, faktor moneter daerah, dan teknologi berpengaruh negatif. Faktor fiskal daerah tidak menunjukkan pengaruh yang signifikan. Pada konvergensi inflasi, hasil pengujian juga tidak mendukung adanya single convergence club dan menunjukkan terbentuknya beberapa klub konvergensi dengan kecepatan konvergensi yang meningkat setelah memperhitungkan faktor spasial dan heterogenitas wilayah. Temuan tersebut menegaskan pentingnya interaksi antardaerah dalam proses penyesuaian harga dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa pandemi COVID-19 mengubah pola hubungan inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta memengaruhi dinamika konvergensi regional di Indonesia. Konvergensi ekonomi dan inflasi tidak berlangsung menuju satu lintasan keseimbangan tunggal, melainkan membentuk beberapa klub konvergensi yang dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik wilayah dan keterkaitan spasial. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa kebijakan moneter tidak perlu menerapkan sasaran inflasi yang terlalu ketat selama inflasi tetap berada dalam kisaran yang mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi. Percepatan konvergensi ekonomi dan inflasi memerlukan penguatan koordinasi antardaerah melalui Tim Pengendalian Inflasi Daerah (TPID), peningkatan konektivitas wilayah, serta kolaborasi pengembangan teknologi dan produktivitas yang mampu menghasilkan spillover positif antarwilayah.

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted Bank Indonesia to implement an unconventional monetary policy through Quantitative Easing (QE), which substantially increased liquidity in the economy. However, during the pandemic, a notable disconnect emerged between money supply growth, inflation, and economic growth. Changes in inflation dynamics, the accelerated post-holiday deflation following major religious festivities, and disruptions to economic activity raised questions regarding the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth and their implications for the regional convergence process in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between economic growth and inflation, examine the process and speed of economic and inflation convergence, and identify the determinants of convergence based on the Quantity Theory of Money while accounting for the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and spatial dependence. This study employs panel data from 90 regencies and municipalities in Indonesia covering the period 2018–2022, encompassing the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. The relationship between economic growth and inflation is analyzed using panel data models. Convergence is examined through sigma convergence, beta convergence, and club convergence approaches using the Nonlinear Least Squares (NLS), Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation (QMLE) methods within a dynamic spatial panel framework. The determinants of convergence are investigated using variables representing capital, economic openness, transportation, technology, local government expenditure, monetary policy, regional liquidity, and COVID-19 pandemic risk. The findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the dynamics of both economic growth and inflation. During the pandemic, economic growth and inflation exhibited a bidirectional causal relationship, whereby higher economic growth stimulated inflation and vice versa. The pandemic exerted its effects primarily through changes in real economic activity, population mobility, and economic behavior rather than through direct price transmission mechanisms. The economic convergence analysis reveals no evidence of a single convergence club. Instead, ten convergence clubs are identified, while twelve regencies and municipalities remain divergent. The estimated speed of economic convergence is relatively slow under the absolute convergence model but increases from approximately 3 percent to 8 percent after accounting for convergence determinants and spatial heterogeneity. Capital accumulation, economic openness, and transportation contribute positively to economic convergence, whereas the COVID-19 pandemic, regional monetary factors, and technology exert negative effects. Local fiscal factors do not have a statistically significant impact. Similarly, the inflation convergence analysis does not support the existence of a single convergence club but instead identifies multiple convergence clubs with faster convergence speeds after incorporating spatial effects and regional heterogeneity. These findings underscore the importance of interregional interactions in facilitating the adjustment of prices and economic growth. This study concludes that the COVID-19 pandemic altered the relationship between inflation and economic growth while reshaping the dynamics of regional convergence in Indonesia. Neither economic growth nor inflation converges toward a single steady-state equilibrium; instead, both evolve into multiple convergence clubs influenced by regional characteristics and spatial interdependence. These findings imply that monetary policy does not necessarily require an excessively stringent inflation target, provided that inflation remains within a range conducive to sustaining economic growth. Accelerating economic and inflation convergence requires stronger interregional coordination through the Regional Inflation Control Teams (TPID), enhanced regional connectivity, and collaborative efforts to promote technological development and productivity capable of generating positive interregional spillover effects.