| dc.description.abstract | WALID QARAR. Analysis of Market Structure, Competitiveness and Trade-Flow
Determinants of Afghanistan’s Grapes in the Global Stage. Supervised by NIA
ROSIANA, and RITA NURMALINA.
Grapes are one of the most important agricultural commodities for
Afghanistan, playing a crucial role in rural livelihood, exports, GDP, and
revenues. Both fresh and dried grapes have been produced and exported by
Afghanistan to regional and global markets. Together with a long cultivation
history and favorable conditions for grape production in Afghanistan, the country
remains limited in its exports to a small number of higher-value markets and is
mostly concentrated on regional markets such as India and Pakistan. The global
grape market is characterized as a highly competitive market among major
exporters, with increasing quality and trade standards, which creates challenges
for the country while expanding its export markets and enhancing its
competitiveness in the global markets.
This study is designed to analyze the global market structure for grapes and
specify the position and role of Afghanistan in it, study the Afghanistan grape
exports competitiveness in comparison to the major global grape exporters, and
identify the factors that affect the Afghan grape exports in the global market,
together with untapped markets for Afghan grapes. The study employed a
qualitative approach and obtained data from international trade databases for
multiple years, in different periods between 2008 and 2024, in different analyses.
In market structure analysis, the study used Concentration Ratio and Herfindahl
Hirschman Index to evaluate the concentration ratios and levels. The grapes
export competitiveness is measured by using Revealed Comparative Advantages
and Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantages in succession. for determining
the trade affecting factors the study used gravity model of PPML methods in
which the study analyses economic size of partner countries as GDP and
Population, Economics distance for study distance proximity between
Afghanistan and partner countries, partner exchange rate, Afghanistan RCA value,
Partner SPS, Common border, common language and importer landlocked status
for other helping indicators and trade barriers.
The results showed that global grape market exports are moderately
concentrated, with several major exporters dominating the global grape markets,
but still, countries like Afghanistan play a crucial role in mostly niche markets.
Major exporting countries, such as China, Italy, Spain, the USA, and Turkey,
generally account for a large share of global grape exports, indicating an
oligopolistic market structure. These countries maintain their position through an
advanced system of production, modernized logistic technologies, and a well
developed market network. Afghanistan's share remains relatively small in
comparison to these countries, despite the country having favorable conditions
and a long history of grape cultivation.
The RCA result showed that Afghanistan possesses a strong comparative
advantage in grape exports, , which are well-known around the globe for quality
and traditional production methods of raisins. The RCA of fresh grapes was very
low compared to dried grapes; it may be due to post-harvest loss, perish ability,
limitation in storage, and higher transportation cost. The results also showed that
the export of Afghanistan's grapes is very concentrated on a few regional markets,
especially for fresh grapes, Pakistan, and India. Both of these account for a big
portion of Afghan grape exports, which are associated with fluctuations due to
policy changes, border disruption, and political tension.
The Afghan grapes demonstrate a higher comparative advantage over the
period in comparison to global major exports, especially in dried grapes, which
are well-known around the globe for quality and traditional production methods of
raisins. The RCA of fresh grapes was very low compared to dried grapes; it may
be due to post-harvest loss, perish ability, limitation in storage, and higher
transportation cost. The results also showed that the export of Afghanistan's
grapes is very concentrated on a few regional markets, especially for fresh grapes,
Pakistan, and India. Both of these account for a big portion of Afghan grape
exports, which are associated with fluctuations due to policy changes, border
disruption, and political tension. The dynamics comparative advantages results
showed that the country could not successfully reconstruct its exports for many
periods, as they lost global pace.
The gravity estimation further revealed that the economic size of the partner
country, distance, trade barrier, and influence play a significant role in
determining exports for Afghanistan, while their effects vary in different types of
grapes due to perish ability. Larger GDP and population of the importing country
are affecting the grapes export positively because of the larger GDP and
population, creating more demand for importing commodities. Distance
negatively affects the export, as the larger the distance between Afghanistan and
the importer, the smaller the amount of grapes exported to that country,
particularly in fresh grapes, as it is mostly concentrated on regional markets.
Common language was not a factor that influenced the grape exports, as it is
customary that common languages do not affect the export of agricultural
products. The importer exchange rate was also a significant factor in some types
of grapes, especially dried grapes. The landlocked status of the importer was also
a significant factor for total and dried grapes; the Afghan RCA was also a factor
influencing exports, especially in fresh and dried grapes. In general, each factor
had a different result for each grape type. The estimation shows that many high
value markets, specifically in Europe, are waiting as an untapped potential market
for Afghanistan grapes, especially dried grapes. While fresh grapes remain on the
market due to their perish ability..
The study suggests that improving trade infrastructure, strengthening
product quality, and diversifying markets are needed for Afghan grapes to
enhance their competitive position in the global markets. The country should
prioritize dried grapes for diversification. The country should address institutional
constraints effectively. The country should develop cold chain facilities and
manage post-harvest stems to reduce losses. For enhancing competitiveness, the
country should work on quality and certification. | |
| dc.description.abstract | WALID QARAR. Analisis Struktur Pasar, Daya Saing, dan Determinan Arus
Perdagangan Anggur Afghanistan di Pasar Global. Dibimbing oleh NIA
ROSIANA dan RITA NURMALINA.
Anggur merupakan salah satu komoditas pertanian utama Afghanistan yang
berperan strategis dalam mendukung mata pencaharian pedesaan, ekspor, Produk
Domestik Bruto (PDB), serta pendapatan nasional. Baik anggur segar maupun
kering telah diproduksi dan diekspor ke pasar regional maupun global. Meskipun
Afghanistan memiliki sejarah panjang budidaya anggur dan kondisi agro-klimat
yang menguntungkan, ekspor negara ini masih terbatas pada sejumlah pasar
bernilai tinggi dan terkonsentrasi di pasar regional seperti India dan Pakistan.
Pasar anggur global bersifat sangat kompetitif di antara eksportir utama, dengan
standar kualitas dan perdagangan yang semakin ketat, sehingga menimbulkan
tantangan signifikan bagi Afghanistan dalam memperluas pasar ekspor dan
meningkatkan daya saing globalnya.
Penelitian ini dirancang untuk menganalisis struktur pasar anggur global dan
memposisikan peran Afghanistan di dalamnya, mengevaluasi daya saing ekspor
anggur Afghanistan dibandingkan eksportir global utama, serta mengidentifikasi
faktor-faktor
yang memengaruhi ekspor anggur Afghanistan sekaligus
mengungkap peluang pasar potensial yang belum tergarap. Pendekatan kualitatif
diterapkan dengan memanfaatkan data dari basis data perdagangan internasional
periode 2008-2024. Analisis struktur pasar menggunakan Concentration Ratio
dan Indeks Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI), sedangkan daya saing ekspor diukur
melalui Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) dan Dynamic RCA. Faktor
penentu perdagangan dianalisis menggunakan model gravitasi dengan metode
Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML), yang mencakup variabel ukuran
ekonomi mitra dagang (PDB dan populasi), jarak ekonomi, nilai tukar mitra, nilai
RCA Afghanistan, standar Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) mitra, perbatasan
bersama, bahasa bersama, serta status daratan importir.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ekspor anggur global bersifat moderat
terkonsentrasi, didominasi oleh eksportir utama seperti Tiongkok, Italia, Spanyol,
Amerika Serikat, dan Turki yang menguasai pangsa pasar besar melalui sistem
produksi canggih, teknologi logistik modern, dan jaringan pasar yang mapan,
mencerminkan struktur pasar oligopolistik. Afghanistan berperan penting di
segmen pasar niche meskipun pangsa pasarnya relatif kecil. Analisis RCA
mengungkapkan keunggulan komparatif kuat Afghanistan dalam ekspor anggur,
khususnya anggur kering yang terkenal secara global berkat kualitas dan metode
produksi tradisional kismis. RCA anggur segar jauh lebih rendah akibat kerugian
pasca-panen, daya tahan terbatas, kendala penyimpanan, dan biaya transportasi
tinggi. Ekspor anggur Afghanistan terkonsentrasi di pasar regional Pakistan dan
India yang fluktuatif akibat perubahan kebijakan, gangguan perbatasan, dan
ketegangan politik, sementara keunggulan komparatif dinamis menunjukkan
ketidakmampuan negara mempertahankan momentum ekspor global.
Estimasi model gravitasi mengungkapkan bahwa ukuran ekonomi mitra
dagang, jarak, hambatan perdagangan, dan pengaruh geopolitik berperan
signifikan dalam menentukan ekspor Afghanistan, dengan efek yang bervariasi
antar jenis anggur akibat perbedaan daya tahan. PDB dan populasi importir yang
lebih besar mendorong ekspor positif melalui permintaan yang tinggi, sementara
jarak berpengaruh negatif, terutama pada anggur segar yang terkonsentrasi di
pasar regional. Common language tidak berpengaruh signifikan, sebagaimana
lazim pada produk pertanian, sedangkan nilai tukar importir, status daratan, dan
RCA Afghanistan memengaruhi ekspor anggur kering dan segar secara berbeda.
Hasil estimasi mengidentifikasi pasar bernilai tinggi di Eropa sebagai untapped
potential market utama, khususnya untuk anggur kering, sementara anggur segar
terhambat oleh kerentanan pasca-panen.
Penelitian
merekomendasikan penguatan infrastruktur perdagangan,
peningkatan kualitas produk, dan diversifikasi pasar untuk meningkatkan posisi
kompetitif anggur Afghanistan. Prioritas strategis meliputi pengembangan anggur
kering untuk diversifikasi pasar, penanganan kendala institusional, pengembangan
fasilitas cold chain, pengelolaan pasca-panen, serta sertifikasi kualitas untuk daya
saing global. | |
