Model Pengendalian Inventory Berbasis Machine Larning Produk Air Minuman Kemasan Gelas Di PT ABC

Abstract

Penelitian ini membangun model peramalan permintaan produk AMDK gelas 200 mL di PT ABC menggunakan metode ANFIS untuk mendukung pengendalian persediaan. Model dibangun dengan variabel input berupa produksi, penggunaan bahan baku, dan downtime mesin, dengan output penjualan, menggunakan 98 data historis yang dibagi 70% data training dan 30% data testing. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan performa model cukup baik dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 0,0607, MAPE sebesar 14,44%, dan R² sebesar 84,18%. Hasil peramalan tersebut kemudian digunakan untuk menghitung Safety Stock sebesar 2.100 karton dan Reorder Point sebesar 11.420 karton. Model ANFIS dinilai berpotensi diterapkan dalam praktik, dilengkapi rekomendasi perbaikan melalui One Point Lesson (OPL).

This study develops a demand forecasting model for 200 mL cup-packaged bottled drinking water (AMDK) products at PT ABC using the ANFIS method to support inventory control. The model uses production volume, raw material usage, and machine downtime as input variables, with sales as the output, based on 98 historical data points split into 70% training and 30% testing data. Results show reasonably good performance, with an RMSE of 0.0607, MAPE of 14.44%, and R² of 84.18%. The forecast output was then used to calculate a Safety Stock of 2,100 cartons and a Reorder Point of 11,420 cartons. The ANFIS model is considered potentially applicable in practice, supported by improvement recommendations through a One Point Lesson (OPL).