Prediksi Penutupan Lahan Menggunakan Citra Resolusi Tinggi di Kecamatan Nagrak Kabupaten Sukabumi

Abstract

Perubahan penutupan lahan di kawasan penyangga berpengaruh terhadap keseimbangan lingkungan dan pengendalian pemanfaatan ruang. Kecamatan Nagrak sebagai kawasan penyangga Taman Nasional Gunung Gede Pangrango mengalami dinamika perubahan penutupan lahan akibat pertumbuhan penduduk dan perkembangan wilayah. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis perubahan penutupan lahan tahun 2012, 2017, dan 2022, memprediksi kondisi penutupan lahan tahun 2027 menggunakan model Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS), serta mengevaluasi kesesuaian hasil prediksi terhadap RTRW Kabupaten Sukabumi Tahun 2023–2043. Data yang digunakan berupa citra SPOT 6 dan SPOT 7 resolusi spasial 1,5 meter. Klasifikasi penutupan lahan dilakukan secara visual menggunakan metode on-screen digitizing berdasarkan SNI 7645:2010. Hasil interpretasi menghasilkan sembilan kelas penutupan lahan, yaitu badan air, hutan lahan kering primer, hutan tanaman, ladang, lahan kosong, permukiman, sawah, padang rumput, dan semak belukar. Uji akurasi menunjukkan nilai overall accuracy sebesar 95% dan kappa accuracy sebesar 94%, sehingga hasil klasifikasi dinilai memiliki ketelitian yang baik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hutan lahan kering primer merupakan kelas penutupan lahan terluas selama periode penelitian. Perubahan yang paling dominan terjadi pada peningkatan kawasan permukiman dan semak belukar yang menunjukkan adanya tekanan aktivitas manusia terhadap kawasan penyangga. Simulasi FLUS dilakukan menggunakan sembilan faktor pendorong, yaitu elevasi, kemiringan lereng, kepadatan penduduk, jarak dari jalan, pusat pemerintahan, fasilitas pendidikan, fasilitas kesehatan, bangunan eksisting, dan pusat perdagangan. Hasil prediksi tahun 2027 menunjukkan peningkatan luas permukiman menjadi 688,07 ha (9,97%) serta penurunan hutan lahan kering primer menjadi 2.697,13 ha (39,08%). Analisis kesesuaian terhadap RTRW Kabupaten Sukabumi Tahun 2023–2043 menunjukkan bahwa sebesar 6.251,35 ha (90,57%) tergolong sesuai, sedangkan 650,73 ha (9,43%) tergolong tidak sesuai dengan pola ruang RTRW. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat mendukung evaluasi tata ruang dan pengelolaan wilayah secara berkelanjutan.

Land cover change in buffer areas plays an important role in maintaining environmental sustainability and controlling spatial utilization. Nagrak District, as a buffer zone of Gunung Gede Pangrango National Park, has experienced dynamic land cover changes due to population growth and regional development. This study aimed to analyze land cover changes in 2012, 2017, and 2022, predict land cover conditions in 2027 using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, and evaluate the conformity of the predicted land cover with the Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW) of Sukabumi Regency 2023–2043. The study used SPOT 6 and SPOT 7 imagery with a spatial resolution of 1.5 m. Land cover classification was conducted visually using the on-screen digitizing method based on SNI 7645:2010. The interpretation identified nine land cover classes, namely water bodies, primary dryland forest, plantation forest, dryland farming, bare land, settlement, paddy field, grassland, and shrubland. The classification accuracy assessment produced an overall accuracy of 95% and a kappa accuracy of 94%, indicating a high level of classification accuracy. The results showed that primary dryland forest was the dominant land cover class during the study period. Significant land cover changes occurred in settlement areas and shrubland, indicating increasing pressure from human activities within the buffer zone. The FLUS model simulated land cover change using nine driving factors, including elevation, slope, population density, distance from roads, government centers, educational facilities, health facilities, existing built-up areas, and trade centers. The 2027 prediction indicated an increase in settlement area to 688.07 ha (9.97%) and a decrease in primary dryland forest to 2,697.13 ha (39.08%). The conformity analysis with the RTRW of Sukabumi Regency 2023–2043 showed that 6,251.35 ha (90.57%) of the predicted area was classified as conforming, while 650.73 ha (9.43%) was classified as non-conforming to the planned spatial pattern. The results of this study are expected to support spatial planning evaluation and sustainable regional management.