Analisa Skema Forecasting Demand dan Implementasi Pengendalian Stock pada Sistem ERP di PT XYZ

Abstract

Latar belakang kajian ini didasari dari belum adanya standar baku dalam perhitungan safety stock dan Reorder Point (ROP) di PT XYZ yang menyebabkan ketidakseimbangan persediaan akibat fluktuasi permintaan dan variabilitas lead time. Tujuan utama adalah klasifikasi material, menyusun skema forecasting, serta mengembangkan skema pengendalian persediaan menggunakan safety stock dan Reorder Point (ROP) yang terintegrasi dengan sistem ERP perusahaan. Metode yang digunakan meliputi analisis ABC, peramalan time series (moving average dan exponential smoothing) dengan evaluasi akurasi menggunakan ME, MAD, MSE, dan MAPE, serta perhitungan safety stock dan Reorder Point (ROP) berbasis probabilistik. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa metode forecasting yang tepat dapat meningkatkan akurasi estimasi permintaan, sedangkan skema safety stock dan Reorder Point (ROP) mampu menekan risiko overstock dan stockout. Implementasi dalam ERP menghasilkan pengendalian persediaan yang lebih terstruktur dan adaptif. Implikasinya adalah peningkatan efisiensi supply chain dan dukungan terhadap penerapan lean manufacturing.

The background of this study is based on the absence of standardized calculations for safety stock and Reorder Point (ROP) at PT XYZ, which has led to inventory imbalances caused by demand fluctuations and lead time variability. The main objectives of this study are material classification, develope a forecasting framework, and develop an inventory control scheme using safety stock and Reorder Point (ROP) integrated with the company’s ERP system. The methods used include ABC analysis, time series forecasting methods (moving average and exponential smoothing) with accuracy evaluation using ME, MAD, MSE, and MAPE, as well as probabilistic-based safety stock and Reorder Point (ROP) calculations. The results indicate that the appropriate forecasting method can improve demand estimation accuracy, while the safety stock and Reorder Point (ROP) scheme can reduce the risks of overstock and stockout. ERP implementation also creates a more structured and adaptive inventory control system. The implications of this study include improved supply chain efficiency and support for lean manufacturing implementation.