Pengembangan Indeks Risiko Serangan Hama Wereng (Nilaparvata Lugens) Pada Tanaman Padi Berbasis Data Cuaca

Abstract

Wereng batang coklat (Nilaparvata lugens) merupakan salah satu hama utama pada tanaman padi yang keberadaannya dipengaruhi oleh kondisi cuaca, terutama suhu udara, kelembapan relatif, dan curah hujan. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan indeks risiko serangan wereng berbasis data cuaca serta memvalidasinya menggunakan data luas serangan di Kabupaten Subang. Data cuaca harian dan data luas serangan wereng periode 2015 2025 dianalisis menggunakan metode skoring berbasis ambang ekologis. Setiap parameter cuaca dikonversi menjadi skor parsial, kemudian diintegrasikan menjadi indeks risiko harian yang diklasifikasikan ke dalam beberapa tingkat risiko. Validasi dilakukan melalui analisis regresi linear sederhana antara rasio frekuensi kejadian risiko dengan luas serangan wereng. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kondisi suhu hangat, kelembapan rendah, dan curah hujan minimal meningkatkan risiko perkembangan wereng. Hubungan positif antara frekuensi kejadian risiko dan luas serangan diperoleh pada kedua musim tanam dengan nilai koefisien determinasi yang tergolong kuat. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa indeks risiko berbasis data cuaca mampu merepresentasikan dinamika serangan wereng dan berpotensi mendukung sistem peringatan dini serta pengendalian hama yang lebih preventif dan berbasis data. Kata kunci: data cuaca, indeks risiko, sistem peringatan dini, wereng batang coklat, luas serangan

The brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) is one of the major pests affecting rice production, whose population dynamics are strongly influenced by weather conditions, particularly air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. This study aimed to develop a weather-based risk index for brown planthopper infestation and validate it using infestation area data in Subang Regency. Daily weather data and brown planthopper infestation data from 2015 2025 were analyzed using an ecological threshold-based scoring method. Each weather parameter was converted into a partial score and integrated into a daily risk index classified into several risk levels. Validation was conducted using simple linear regression analysis between the frequency ratio of risk occurrence and the infestation area. The results showed that warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and minimal rainfall increased the risk of brown planthopper development. A positive relationship was observed between the frequency of risk occurrence and infestation area during both planting seasons, with relatively strong coefficients of determination. These findings indicate that the developed weather-based risk index was able to represent brown planthopper infestation dynamics and has the potential to support an early warning system and more preventive, data-driven pest management strategies. Keywords: brown planthopper, early warning system, infestation area, risk index, weather data.