Analisis Area Prioritas Mitigasi Konflik Manusia-Harimau di Lanskap Cagar Alam Maninjau

Abstract

Tujuan penelitian adalah menganalisis area prioritas mitigasi konflik manusia-harimau di lanskap Cagar Alam Maninjau, melalui pendekatan spasial yang menggabungkan analisis fragmentasi hutan, pemodelan distribusi risiko konflik manusia-harimau, kerangka kerja Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Responses (DPSIR), dan kerangka Urgent, Seriousness, Growth (USG). Studi ini dilatarbelakangi oleh kejadian konflik yang terus meningkat setiap tahun, yang diduga berkaitan dengan perubahan penggunaan lahan yang berimplikasi pada terjadinya fragmentasi hutan, sehingga memperbesar peluang interaksi negatif dengan aktivitas manusia di sekitar kawasan konservasi. Penelitian yang mengintegrasikan fragmentasi hutan, model risiko konflik manusia-harimau, dan data sosial-ekonomi dalam penentuan area prioritas mitigasi konflik berbasis lanskap masih jarang dilakukan, khususnya di lanskap Cagar Alam Maninjau. Selama 19 tahun, tercatat 47 kasus konflik yang didokumentasikan secara lengkap. Tipe konflik yang umum terjadi di lanskap Cagar Alam Maninjau 85% didominasi oleh serangan harimau terhadap hewan ternak milik masyarakat lokal, seperti sapi, kerbau, dan kambing, serta anjing peliharaan. Sekitar 64% konflik terjadi di sekitar lahan perkebunan maupun lahan pertanian, mengindikasikan tingginya tumpang tindih penggunaan ruang harimau dengan aktivitas antropogenik. Selama tahun 2005 hingga 2024, terjadi penurunan luas tutupan hutan primer dan sekunder yang dikonversi menjadi lahan non-hutan seperti perkebunan, sawah, dan lahan terbangun. Analisis metriks lanskap menjelaskan bahwa area hutan semakin terfragmentasi menjadi patch-patch kecil yang terpisah-pisah, ditandai dengan peningkatan kepadatan patch, penurunan proporsi luas inti hutan, dan meningkatnya kepadatan tepi hutan. Pemodelan spasial risiko konflik manusia-harimau algoritma model ensemble memiliki tingkat akurasi terbaik dengan nilai Area Under Curve (AUC) sebesar 0,97 (97%). Model ini menjelaskan bahwa risiko konflik dipengaruhi oleh dua variabel yaitu, jarak dari kandang ternak masyarakat dan jarak dari tepi hutan. Secara geografis, wilayah dengan tingkat risiko konflik tertinggi terkonsentrasi di bagian utara dan timur area studi. Integrasi kejadian konflik manusia-harimau historis, model risiko konflik manusia-harimau, dan fragmentasi hutan menggunakan metode USG menghasilkan area prioritas mitigasi konflik. Kategori kelas prioritas rendah mendominasi wilayah studi dengan luas 178.238 ha (63%), diikuti dengan kategori prioritas sedang mencakup 52.837 ha (19%), dan prioritas tinggi seluas 49.725 ha (18%). Secara substansif, distribusi area prioritas menunjukkan prioritas rendah yang paling dominan, terdapat 37% wilayah prioritas sedang dan tinggi yang memerlukan perhatian serius dalam tindakan mitigasi atau pengelolaan konflik. Selanjutnya, sebanyak 80 desa dikategorikan ke dalam prioritas rendah, 63 desa masuk ke dalam prioritas sedang, dan 17 desa masuk ke dalam kategori prioritas tinggi. Tindakan mitigasi utama berfokus pada desa-desa yang masuk ke dalam prioritas tinggi, karena berpotensi menimbulkan konflik berulang di desa tersebut. Intervensi utama yang disarankan untuk meminimalkan terjadinya konflik secara berulang adalah penguatan strategi keamanan manajemen ternak, seperti membangun kandang yang aman dari serangan harimau, mengandangkan ternak pada malam hari, menjauhkan lokasi kandang dari tepi hutan, membangun sistem peringatan dini, meningkatkan patroli di area risiko tinggi, dan melaksanakan kompensasi secara efektif.

This study aimed to analyze priority areas for human-tiger conflict mitigation within the Maninjau Nature Reserve landscape through a spatial approach that integrates forest fragmentation analysis, conflict risk distribution modeling, the Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, and the Urgency- Seriousness-Growth method. The research was driven by the escalating annual incidence of conflicts, which is hypothesized to be associated with land-use changes that induce forest fragmentation, thereby amplifying the probability of interaction with human activities surrounding the conservation area. Research integrating forest fragmentation, human-tiger conflict risk modeling, and socio-economic data to identify landscape-based priority areas for conflict mitigation remains limited, particularly within the Maninjau Nature Reserve landscape. Over the course of 19 years, 65 cases of conflict were recorded; the typology of this data was supplemented using official news sources. However, no primary data collection regarding conflicts was conducted during field visits, as some data lacked information on the year of the incident (n = 12) and others had spatial coordinate discrepancies (n = 6). Consequently, a total of 47 conflict incident records were deemed valid. Approximately 64% of these conflicts occurred in the vicinity of plantations and agricultural lands, indicating a high degree of spatial overlap between tiger space use and anthropogenic activities. Between 2005 and 2024, a notable decline in primary and secondary forest cover was observed, driven by conversion into non- forest land uses including plantations, paddy fields, and built-up areas. Landscape metrics analysis revealed that the forest has become increasingly fragmented into small, isolated patches, characterized by increased patch density, a reduced proportion of core forest area, and heightened forest edge density. Spatial modeling of human-tiger conflict risk using an ensemble model achieved the highest predictive performance, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.97 (97%). This model showed that conflict risk is driven primarily by two variables: proximity to community livestock enclosures and distance from the forest edge. Geographically, regions with the highest conflict risk are concentrated in the northern and eastern parts of the study area. The integration of historical human–tiger conflict occurrences, human–tiger conflict risk modeling, and forest fragmentation analysis using the Urgency, Seriousness, and Growth (USG) method resulted in the delineation of conflict mitigation priority areas. The low-priority class dominates the study area, covering 178,238 ha (63%), followed by the medium-priority class at 52,837 ha (19%), and the high-priority class at 49,725 ha (18%). Substantively, this distribution indicates that although low-priority areas are predominant, approximately 37% of the study area (medium and high priority) requires serious attention in terms of mitigation actions and conflict management. Furthermore, a total of 80 villages are classified as low priority, 63 villages as medium priority, and 17 villages as high priority. Mitigation efforts should primarily focus on villages within the high-priority category, as these areas have a higher potential for recurring conflict incidents. Key recommended interventions to minimize repeated conflicts include strengthening livestock management security strategies, such as constructing predator-proof enclosures, keeping livestock secured at night, locating enclosures away from forest edges, implementing early warning systems, increasing patrol intensity in high-risk areas, and ensuring effective compensation schemes.