Pengaruh Curah Hujan dan Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies terhadap Hotspot di Taman Nasional Gunung Rinjani

Abstract

Kebakaran hutan dan lahan merupakan ancaman serius bagi kawasan konservasi tropis beriklim monsun kering, termasuk Taman Nasional Gunung Rinjani (TNGR). Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pola hotspot di TNGR selama periode 2017–2024 serta mengkaji hubungan antara curah hujan dan Niño 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies terhadap dinamika hotspot. Penelitian dilakukan menggunakan data hotspot satelit MODIS/VIIRS dari NASA FIRMS, data curah hujan dari BMKG, dan data SST Anomalies dari NOAA CPC yang dianalisis pada skala bulanan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hotspot di TNGR memiliki pola temporal yang jelas, dengan lonjakan signifikan pada periode curah hujan rendah, khususnya ketika curah hujan berada di bawah ambang kritis <20 mm/bulan. SST Anomalies positif berasosiasi dengan penurunan intensitas curah hujan dan peningkatan jumlah hotspot, sedangkan SST Anomalies negatif berkaitan dengan curah hujan berintensitas tinggi dan rendahnya hotspot. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan dasar ilmiah bagi pengelolaan kebakaran berbasis iklim di kawasan konservasi TNGR.

Kata kunci: curah hujan, titik panas, SST Anomalies, variabilitas iklim.

Forest and land fires pose a serious threat to tropical conservation areas characterized by a dry monsoon climate, including Mount Rinjani National Park (MRNP). This study aims to analyze hotspot patterns in MRNP during the period 2017–2024 and to examine the relationship between rainfall variability and Niño 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies in influencing hotspot dynamics. The study utilizes MODIS/VIIRS satellite hotspot data from NASA FIRMS, rainfall data from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics, and SST Anomalies data from NOAA CPC, which were analyzed using monthly approaches. The results indicate that hotspots in MRNP exhibit aclear temporal pattern, with significant increases during periods of low rainfall, particularly when monthly rainfall falls below the critical threshold of <20 mm. Positive SST Anomalies are associated with reduced rainfall intensity and increased hotspot occurrence, whereas negative SST Anomalies correspond to higher rainfall intensity and lower hotspot frequency. This study provides a scientific basis for the adaptive fire management strategies in the MRNP conservation area.

Keywords: rainfall, hotspots, SST Anomalies, climate variability.