Dampak Inklusi Keuangan Digital terhadap Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan berdasarkan Tingkat Pengembangan Keuangan Negara

Abstract

Penelitian ini menyoroti fenomena digitalisasi dalam inklusi keuangan serta pengaruhnya terhadap stabilitas sistem keuangan. Meskipun tingkat inklusi keuangan di beberapa negara masih relatif rendah dan kesenjangan dalam akses terhadap layanan keuangan antarnegara masih signifikan, perkembangan digitalisasi telah mempermudah masyarakat dalam mengakses berbagai layanan keuangan. Namun, di sisi lain, digitalisasi tidak hanya berpotensi meningkatkan inklusi keuangan, tetapi juga dapat menimbulkan implikasi terhadap stabilitas sistem keuangan, baik dalam bentuk penguatan maupun peningkatan risiko yang dapat memicu penurunan stabilitas keuangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyusun indeks inklusi keuangan digital (digital financial inclusion index/DFII) yang mencakup dimensi akses dan penggunaan, serta menganalisis pengaruhnya terhadap stabilitas sistem keuangan di 30 negara selama periode 2015–2021. DFII dikembangkan menggunakan metode principal component analysis (PCA) dengan mengintegrasikan indikator kredit daring (online credit) sebagai proksi utama pemanfaatan layanan keuangan digital. Stabilitas sistem keuangan diukur menggunakan rasio non-performing loans (NPL), sementara tingkat inklusi keuangan direpresentasikan oleh financial inclusion index (FII) yang mengombinasikan aspek inklusi keuangan tradisional dan digital. Estimasi empiris dilakukan menggunakan model fixed effects dengan clustered standard errors untuk mengakomodasi heterogenitas dan potensi autokorelasi antarnegara. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa inklusi keuangan digital secara signifikan menurunkan rasio NPL pada model global, negara berpendapatan tinggi (high-income countries/HIC), dan negara berpendapatan menengah atas (upper-middle-income countries/UMIC). Namun demikian, pengaruh tersebut tidak signifikan secara statistik pada negara berpendapatan menengah bawah (lower-middle-income countries/LMIC), yang mengindikasikan adanya kendala struktural seperti keterbatasan infrastruktur digital dan literasi keuangan. Selain itu, efisiensi perbankan menunjukkan dampak yang heterogen antar kelompok pendapatan. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya percepatan digitalisasi keuangan dan penguatan kapasitas kelembagaan guna meningkatkan stabilitas sistem keuangan. Kata kunci: Efisiensi perbankan, inklusi keuangan digital, stabilitas keuangan, kredit bermasalah (Non-Performing Loans/NPL), data panel.

This study examines the phenomenon of digitalisation in financial inclusion and its implications for financial system stability. Although the level of financial inclusion in several countries remains relatively low and substantial disparities persist in access to financial services across countries, rapid advancements in digital technologies have significantly facilitated public access to a wide range of financial services. However, digitalisation not only holds the potential to enhance financial inclusion, but may also generate implications for financial system stability. These implications can manifest either as a stabilising force or, conversely, as an amplification of financial risks that may undermine overall financial stability. This study aims to construct a digital financial inclusion index (DFII) encompassing both access and usage dimensions, and to examine its impact on financial system stability across 30 countries over the period 2015–2021. The DFII is developed using the principal component analysis (PCA) method by integrating online credit indicators as the primary proxy for the utilisation of digital financial services. Financial system stability is measured using the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio, while the overall level of financial inclusion is represented by a financial inclusion index (FII) that combines both traditional and digital dimensions of financial inclusion. Empirical estimation is conducted using a fixed-effects model with clustered standard errors to account for cross-country heterogeneity and potential serial correlation. The empirical findings reveal that digital financial inclusion significantly reduces the NPL ratio in the global model, as well as in high-income countries (HICs) and upper-middle-income countries (UMICs). However, this effect is not statistically significant for lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), suggesting the presence of structural constraints, such as limited digital infrastructure and low levels of financial literacy, which may hinder the effective transmission of digital financial inclusion to financial stability. Furthermore, banking efficiency exhibits heterogeneous effects across different income groups. Overall, these findings underscore the critical importance of accelerating financial digitalisation and strengthening institutional capacity in order to enhance financial system stability. Keywords: Banking efficiency; digital financial inclusion; financial stability; non-performing loans (NPL); panel data