dc.contributor.advisor | Simangunsong, Bintang C. H. | |
dc.contributor.author | Fransiska, Berliana | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-07-10T02:36:56Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-07-10T02:36:56Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/153362 | |
dc.description.abstract | Indonesia merupakan pengekspor kertas sanitasi yang unggul di dunia. Kegiatan ekspor kertas sanitasi dalam jumlah yang tinggi dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi negara. Namun, keseimbangan antara permintaan dan penawaran seringkali tidak tercapai, sehingga berdampak pada terjadinya fluktuasi harga di pasar. Fluktuasi harga tersebut menjadi faktor utama terjadinya volatilitas harga ekspor kertas sanitasi. Jika volatilitas yang terjadi sangat tinggi, akan ada risiko yang harus dihadapi, utamanya oleh penjual. Volatilitas yang tinggi menyebabkan harga sulit untuk diprediksi, sehingga tidak ada kepastian harga di masa depan. Kondisi tersebut akan mengganggu kegiatan ekspor, sehingga perlu adanya langkah antisipasi berupa pembuatan kebijakan oleh pemerintah yang mengacu pada peramalan harga ekspor. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa, meskipun harga ekspor mengalami fluktuasi selama periode 2006–2023, tetapi fluktuasi tersebut tidak menunjukkan adanya clustering volatility. Di samping itu, hasil peramalan harga ekspor dengan model ARIMA (2,1,2) menghasilkan model peramalan yang cenderung mendekati harga ekspor sesungguhnya, sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ARIMA (2,1,2) baik digunakan untuk meramal harga ekspor kertas sanitasi. | |
dc.description.abstract | Indonesia is the top sanitary paper exporter in the world. A high volume of sanitary paper exports can boost the country's economic growth. However, the balance between demand and supply is often not achieved, resulting in price fluctuations in the market. These price fluctuations are a primary factor in sanitary paper export price volatility. If the volatility is over the top, there will be risks that must be faced, especially by sellers. High volatility makes prices hard to predict, so there is no certainty of future prices. This condition will disrupt export activities, so there is a need for anticipatory steps in the form of policy-making by the government that refers to export price forecasting. The analysis results show that, although export prices fluctuated during 2006–2023, the fluctuations did not show any clustering volatility. In addition, the results of export price forecasting with the ARIMA (2,1,2) model produce a forecasting model that tends to be close to the actual export price, so it can be stated that the ARIMA (2,1,2) model is well used to forecast the export price of sanitary paper. | |
dc.description.sponsorship | | |
dc.language.iso | id | |
dc.publisher | IPB University | id |
dc.title | Analisis Volatilitas dan Peramalan Harga Ekspor Kertas Sanitasi Indonesia Periode 2006–2023 | id |
dc.title.alternative | Volatility Analysis and Forecasting of Indonesian Sanitary Paper Export Prices for the Period 2006–2023 | |
dc.type | Skripsi | |
dc.subject.keyword | ARIMA | id |
dc.subject.keyword | export price | id |
dc.subject.keyword | sanitary paper | id |
dc.subject.keyword | forecasting | id |
dc.subject.keyword | volatility | id |