Pengembangan model monsun indonesia berbasis hasil analisis data indeks monsun regional
View/ Open
Date
2010Author
Surbakti, Prasasti Br
Effendy, Sobri
Hermawan, Eddy
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Monsoon is one of regional phenomenon that affects weather and climate in Indonesia.
This is caused by the territory of Indonesia which is located in equatorial zone and between Asia in
the north and Australia in the south. Due to the location, there are two monsoons named Asia
which causes wet season (December-January-February) and Australia which causes dry season
(June-July-August). Until this time, Indonesia doesn’t have monsoon index which is needed by
BMKG (Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency). Regional monsoon index (RMI)
data must be calibrated with data from Indonesia, EAR (Equatorial Atmosphere Radar) to examine
the relation of EAR with IMR data. Selected time-series of IMR data is used to develop monsoon
model. The method that used is monsoon analysis and spectral analysis with Matlab and cross
correlation analysis and the Box-Jenkins method, ARIMA with SPSS 16.0. The results of the
analysis show that AUSMI (Australian Monsoon Index) at 200 mb layer which oscillate around 12
months has high correlation with EAR data 0.781. The appropriate model to show the monsoon
model is ARIMA (1,1,1). AUSMI period t is decided by one and two months latest data (Zt-1) and
(Zt-2) and a month error latest data (at-1) with equation Zt = 1.047 Zt-1-.047Zt-2 + 0.093at-1. The
validation results obtained using model with actual data IMR February 2004-December 2008 give
average error 2.3906 and correlation 0.7139.