Pendugaan insiden infeksi HIV: suatu kajian model epidemi aids di Indonesia

Abstract

The Objective of this paper is to apply statistical methods for estimating numbers of persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to project future acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence. The approach uses the method of 'back projection' to provide estimates of the number of new infections with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). as a function of time, by using the numbers of diagnoses of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) together with information on the distribution of the incubation period between infection and diagnosis. Here, the quadratic exponential function and the method of time series are used for the purpose of predicting future numbers of new cases of AIDS.