Dampak leberalisasi perdagangan terhadap keragaan industri gula Indonesia: suatu analisis kebijakan
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Date
2000Author
Abidin, Zainal
Sinaga, Bonar M.
Kuntjoro, Sri Utami
Ratnawati, Anny
Sudaryanto, Tahlim
Soetrisno, Noer
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lndustri gula Indonesia sudah berlangsung sejak lebih dari satu
abad yang lalu. Keberhasilan industri gula dinikmati penjajah jauh
sebelum Indonesia merdeka. Peranannya yang strategis dimasa
sekarang maupun yang akan datang, dengan berbagai masalah yang
timbul dalam memasuki era liberalisasi perdagangan, menjadi fenomena
baru bagi industri gula Indonesia.
Penelitian int bertujuan menganalisis dampak liberalisasi
perdagangan terhadap keragaan industri gula domestik. Model lndustri
Gula Indonesia yang simultan dan dinamik dibangun dan diduga dengan
metode Two Stage Least Squares. Metode Stepwise autoregresive dan
exponential smoothing digunakan untuk memperoleh data ramalan
variabel eksogen. Simulasi historis (ex-post) dan peramalan (ex-ante)
menggunakan metode solusi Newton.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ( 1) di negara eksportir, tingkat
produksi menjadi pertimbangan yang utama dalam mengekspor;
sedangkan di negara importir pertimbangan utamanya adalah harga impor
dan tingkat konsumsi, (2) intervensi pasar negara eksportir maupun
importir akan mempengaruhi harga gula dunia, (3) kebijakan kemandirian
produksi gula domestik akan memperbaiki keragaan industri gula domestik
pada era liberalisasi perdagangctn, dan (4) akses kredit, penerapan
teknologi (budidaya dan pengolahan) serta perluasan areal menjadi faktor
penentu keberhasilan dalam memperbaiki keragaan industri gula
domestik. Sugar industry in Indonesia have existed since a century ago. The
success of sugar industry was enjoyed by the colonizers far before the
Indonesian independence day. The strategic roles at present and in the
future with their complex problems which appear in entering trade
liberalization era become new phenomena for Indonesian sugar industry.
, This study aims at analyzing the impact of trade liberalization on the
◄ performance of domestic sugar industry. The Model of Indonesian Sugar
Industry was build and estimated by Two Stage Least Squares method
• which is simultaneous and dynamic. Stepwise Autoregressive and
, · Exponential Smoothing methods are used to obtain forecasting data for
exogenous variables. Historical (ex-post) and forecasting (ex-ante)
simulations using Newton solution method.
The results show that (1) in exporter countries, production level
become the main consideration in sugar export, while in importer
countries, the main consideration is import price and the consumption
level, (2) market intervention of exporter and importer countries will
influence the world sugar price, (3) self reliance policy of domestic sugar
production will improve domestic sugar industry performance in the era of
trade liberalization, and (4) the accessibility of credit, the application of
, technology effectivity ( cultivation and processing) and are expansion
become decisive factors for the success for the improvement of the
performance of Indonesian sugar industry.