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      Sebaran Bersama Berbasis Copula dan Coincidence Probability antara Data Curah Hujan dan Hari Tanpa Hujan di Sumatera Bagian Selatan

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      Date
      2022
      Author
      Thalib, Achmad Syarief
      Nurdiati, Sri
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      Abstract
      El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) dapat memengaruhi penurunan intensitas curah hujan dan peningkatan hari tanpa hujan yang dapat menyebabkan kekeringan dan meningkatkan potensi kebakaran hutan. Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh kondisi ENSO dan IOD terhadap sebaran bersama curah hujan dan hari tanpa hujan di daerah rawan kebakaran di Sumatera bagian selatan, Indonesia. Daerah rawan kebakaran didefinisikan menggunakan k-mean clustering, sedangkan parameter copula diestimasi menggunakan metode inference of function for margins (IFM). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa kondisi ENSO dan IOD tidak berpengaruh nyata pada musim hujan tetapi sangat berpengaruh pada musim kemarau. Sementara itu, berdasarkan coincidence probability, kondisi ENSO masih memengaruhi sebaran bersama antara curah hujan dan hari tanpa hujan pada musim hujan tetapi tidak dengan kondisi IOD. El Nino Moderat-Kuat memiliki coincidence probability paling besar sebesar 86.53%, diikuti IOD Positif sebesar 83.96% pada musim kemarau. Oleh karena itu, hubungan antara curah hujan dan hari tanpa hujan di musim kemarau lebih kuat daripada di musim hujan.
       
      El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect in decreasing rainfall intensity (precipitation) and in increasing days without rain, a.k.a dry spells, which can cause drought and the potential for forest fires. This study examines the effect of ENSO and IOD conditions on the joint distribution of precipitation and dry spells in southern Sumatra, Indonesia. Fire-prone areas are defined using k-mean clustering, while the copula parameters are estimated using the inference of functions for margin (IFM) method. The result shows that the ENSO and IOD conditions have no significant effect in the rainy season but they are very influential in the dry season. Meanwhile, based on coincidence probability, ENSO conditions still affect the joint distribution between precipitation and dry spells in the rainy season but IOD conditions do not. Moderate-Strong El Nino has the highest coincidence probability of 86.53%, followed by Positive IOD of 83.96% in the dry season. Therefore, the relationship between precipitation and dry spells in the dry season is stronger than it is in the rainy season.
       
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      http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/114222
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      • UT - Mathematics [1095]

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      Copyright © 2020 Library of IPB University
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      Indonesia DSpace Group 
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