Dampak Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Produktivitas Tanaman Karet di Kabupaten Musi Banyuasin

Abstract

Karet merupakan tanaman perkebunan yang paling utama di Kabupaten Musi Banyuasin. Keragaman produktivitas karet sangat dipengaruhi oleh keragaman iklim. Penelitian ini bertujuan menilai dampak perubahan iklim terhadap produktivitas tanaman karet di Kabupaten Musi Banyuasin. Hubungan antara keragaman iklim dan produktivitas karet disusun dengan menggunakan analisis regresi berdasarkan data observasi produktivitas karet dan iklim bulanan tahun 2011-2020 dari Balai Penelitian Sembawa dan proyeksi perubahan iklim 2021-2050 menggunakan model RegCM4 dan Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) dengan dua skenario RCP4.5 dan RCP8.5. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perubahan iklim secara umum berdampak positif terhadap produktivitas tanaman. Berdasarkan model RegCM4, produktivitas tanaman karet meningkat antara 10.82% dan 24.34%, sedangkan dengan model MME di sebagian kecil wilayah dampaknya bersifat negatif yaitu akan menurunkan produktivitas sampai 3%, dan di sebagian besar lainnya juga berdampak positif yaitu akan meningkatkan produktivitas sampai 6.38%.

Rubber is the main plantation crop in Musi Banyuasin Regency. The variability of rubber productivity is strongly influenced by climate. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the productivity of rubber plants in Musi Banyuasin Regency. The relationship between climate variability and rubber productivity was developed using regression analysis based on monthly observations of rubber productivity and climate for 2011-2020 from the Sembawa Research Institute. Climate change projections for 2021-2050 was from RegCM4 and the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) under scenario of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results showed that climate change in general had a positive impact on crop productivity. Based on the RegCM4 model, the productivity of rubber plants increased between 10.82% and 24.34%. With the MME model, the impact in a small part of the area was negative, i.e. it would decrease productivity up to -3%, while in most other areas it would also have a positive impact, namely increasing productivity up to 6.38%