dc.description.abstract | Human-induced climate change is considered a threat to communities and
the natural system, in particular, agriculture, forestry, economy, health, and wellbeing.
Climate change poses great influence on crop productivity, food supply and
food security. Indonesian farmers are the most vulnerable group prone to climate
change risks, where they rely on rain-fed agriculture system. Meanwhile, Farmer’s
responses could play significant role in fighting with changing climate and rising
agricultural production. Extreme weather events namely flood and long dry
season, are great concerns for Indonesia and the region. Moreover, land cover
around world’s many regions are being changed at a rapid pace. Particularly,
deforestation is the main recognized type of land cover changes and the main
contributor to climate change. Where, human activities particularly, agriculture
expansion is the main driver of land transformation.
The objectives of this study is to detect rainfall and temperature trends of
the past thirty years, identify land cover changes and trends, and evaluate
smallholder farmer’s perception and their responses against changing climate in
Dramaga Sub-district. Where, the Dramaga has a huge number of populations
relying on rain-fed agriculture, as to feed themselves and support food security.
Three main sources for obtaining data have been used in this study: a):
Monthly rainfall and temperature data were obtained from the Dramaga
Climatology Station of Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency from
the period 1990-2019. b): Satellite imageries Landsat 7 and landsat 8 operation
land manager (OLI) with the 30 m resolution have been obtained from USGS
online system. c): field data have been obtained from smallholder farmers using
structured questionnaire and interview. In order to analyze the data, A Mann-
Kendall statistical test has been run to detect the statistical significance of time
series monthly rainfall and temperature data in comparison with the linear model.
Likewise, to detect the land cover changes from 2000 to 2020, supervised
classification has been carried out, and Land cover map for the 2000 and 2020
along with the changes detection have been prepared through Arc GIS 10.2. To
find out climate change perception among smallholder farmers, descriptive
statistics such as mean and standards deviation for the Likert scale statements
analysis and a Chi-square test have been run to determine association among
variables.
The findings indicated no significant trends in the seasonal and annual
rainfall in the past thirty years, whereas, annual mean and maximum temperature
are rising significantly. Further, the annual minimum temperature does not show a
statistically significant increase. Study Findings showed that, great areas in Bogor
converted from vegetation – Agriculture (+27.2%), Vegetation – Built up
(+12.1%), Vegetation – Bare land (+9.6%), forest – agriculture (+9.7%), and
Forest – built up (+4.8%). Moreover, Approximately, 688 Ha land cover has been
changed in Dramaga Sub-district in the past 20 years. In addition, majority of
farmers are aware of climate change, where they felt that climate is changing.
Most of farmers are practicing some common adaptation measure based on their
experiences. Further, they have been practicing few mitigation measure as well.
Climate events owing to the rainfall variation, Temperature rise, and land use
change threat smallholder farmers. Results of the study might help decisionmakers
and relevant stakeholders for climate-smart agricultural projects
development at the community level. Moreover, they must understand the land
cover changes, trend, and future challenges through conducting further prediction
studies in order to contribute on preventing illegal development activities based on
governmental regulation and sustainable land use management. In addition,
Decision makers must contribute on reducing farmer’s vulnerabilities and
enhancing their capacity due to lack of access to the latest environmentally
sustainable agricultural technology. | id |