Simulation Model of Mangrove Degradation (Case Study at Mahakam Delta, East Kalimantan Provinve, Indonesia)

Abstract

The crucial problem at Mahakam Delta is the degradation of mangrove ecosystems. This is mainly due to the social impacts resulting from the monetary crisis in mid 1990’s in which large number of shrimpponds were constructed and mangroves were cleared in many parts of the delta. The main objective of this research is to study the dynamic changes of mangrove coverage at Mahakam Delta East Kalimantan. The specific objectives are: 1) to predict on the future trend of mangrove degradation both mangrove coverage degradation and land value degradation, 2) to identify the influencing factors of mangrove degradation both mangrove coverage degradation and land value degradation, and 3) to know the dynamic processes of mangrove degradation both mangrove coverage degradation and land value degradation. The factors that influence mangrove coverage degradation at Mahakam Delta are regeneration and exploitation. Mangrove degradation rate at Mahakam Delta is 0.140023, that is the net growth rate and exploitation rate. The factors that influence land value are mangrove coverage degradation itself, benefit of mangrove forest products, exploitation cost, and recovery cost. Prediction of mangrove coverage degradation at Mahakam Delta indicates that about 50% will degrade in year 2010, while in 2024 the remaining mangrove coverage is estimated to be 1,547.14 hectare (6.85%). The land value degradation at Mahakam Delta is estimated around Rp. 1,210 billion at the early prediction (year 2005) and a loss over Rp. 1 billion for the last prediction (year 2024).