dc.contributor.advisor | Perdinan | |
dc.contributor.advisor | Hidayati, Rini | |
dc.contributor.author | Novrita, Firdah Nadya | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-01-26T09:27:20Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-01-26T09:27:20Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/105426 | |
dc.description.abstract | Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) merupakan penyakit akut, bersifat endemik tetapi
secara periodik dapat mendatangkan kejadian luar biasa. Kota Bogor merupakan
salah satu kota endemik DBD. Penelitian ini bertujuan memodelkan dampak
kerugian dari kejadian DBD Kota Bogor berdasarkan variasi iklim. Data yang
digunakan dalam penelitian antara lain curah hujan, hari hujan, suhu, kelembaban
relatif, prevalensi penyakit DBD, nilai PDB, dan lainnya. Metode analisis data
dilakukan dengan mengkaji korelasi antara faktor iklim dan tingkat prevalensi
penyakit DBD, kemudian membuat model perhitungan dampak perubahan kejadian
di masa depan pada prevalensi penyakit DBD. Penilaian dampak dilakukan dengan
menghitung rasio kerugian yang diakibatkan dari penambahan jumlah prevalensi
penyakit di Kota Bogor pada masa depan. Dalam kurun waktu 10 tahun, pola
kejadian DBD Kota Bogor terlihat mencapai puncak pada musim hujan mencapai
titik terendah saat musim kemarau. Berdasarkan hasil uji statistik, kejadian DBD di
Kota Bogor tahun 2010-2019 memiliki korelasi positif yang nyata dengan
kelembaban relatif (r = 0.493) dan curah hujan (r = 0,239). Suhu udara memiliki
korelasi negatif nyata (r = -0,262), sedangkan hari hujan tidak memiliki korelasi
dengan kejadian DBD (r = 0,004). Pada model perhitungan, proyeksi total pasien
memengaruhi dampak kerugian kejadian DBD di masa depan. Berdasarkan hasil,
jumlah pasien proyeksi DBD di Kota Bogor mengalami peningkatan. Peningkatan
tersebut mengakibatkan kerugian di masa depan sebesar 22,8% menjadi 185 milyar
rupiah, karena adanya perubahan iklim di masa depan dan secara tidak langsung
memengaruhi jumlah kejadian DBD. | id |
dc.description.abstract | Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is an acute disease, endemic but periodically
can cause extraordinary events. Bogor City is one of the dengue endemic cities.
This study aims to model the impact of losses from the incidence of dengue fever
in Bogor based on climate variations. The data used in the study included rainfall,
rainy days, temperature, relative humidity, DHF prevalence, GDP value, and others.
The method of data analysis was carried out by examining the correlation between
climatic factors and the prevalence level of DHF, then making a model for
calculating the impact of changes in future events on the prevalence of DHF. The
impact assessment is carried out by calculating the ratio of losses resulting from
increasing the number of disease prevalence in the city of Bogor in the future. In a
period of 10 years, the pattern of dengue fever in Bogor City is seen to peak in the
rainy season and reach its lowest point during the dry season. Based on the results
of statistical tests, the incidence of dengue fever in Bogor City in 2010-2019 has a
significant positive correlation with relative humidity (r = 0.493) and rainfall (r =
0.239). Air temperature has a significant negative correlation (r = -0.262), while a
rainy day has no correlation with the incidence of dengue fever (r = 0.004). In the
calculation model, the projection of the total patient affects the impact of the loss
on future DHF events. Based on the results, the number of DHF projection patients
in Bogor City has increased. This increase resulted in future losses of 22.8% to 185
billion rupiah, due to climate change in the future and indirectly affecting the
number of dengue cases. | id |
dc.language.iso | id | id |
dc.publisher | IPB University | id |
dc.title | Model Dinamis Variasi Iklim dan Kejadian Penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) | id |
dc.title.alternative | Dynamic Models of Climate Variations and the Incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) | id |
dc.type | Undergraduate Thesis | id |
dc.subject.keyword | Bogor City | id |
dc.subject.keyword | climate | id |
dc.subject.keyword | dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) | id |
dc.subject.keyword | impact loss | id |
dc.subject.keyword | model | id |