Rancang Bangun Sistem Pakar Manajemen Risiko Untuk Perencanaan Agroindustri Rumput Laut

Abstract

The seaweed agroindustry performance is depend on quantity and quality of its raw material. Beside that, processing technology, marketing, and financial problem give influence to its achievment. Since those factors contains potential risk, there is need to identify and manage those factors trough risk management. The main aim of this study is to design expert system of risk management for seaweed agro industry planning. The scope of the research object is a small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The case study was done at PT Madura Prima Interna, East Java, which produce semi refined carrageenan for exports. The development of this expert system is composed by 6 activities which are knowledge acquisition through expert survey, knowledge conceptualization, knowledge representation., inference mechanism, computer programming, implementation and evaluation (Liebowitz, 1998). Method used for risk analysis and consultation of risk controlling was protocol method, using if-then formulation. In the case of choosing the criterion, we used Method of Exponential Comparison (MPE). In doing forecasting, is used time serried analysis method. Financial feasibility was analyzed using variables IRR B/C ratio, BEP, PBP and NPV. Knowledge acquisition was attained from 6 experts in business and professional with seaweed industry. The result of this knowledge acquisition was risk management factors in the seaweed agro industry, impact and risk possibility, and risk control. SeaWeed-Risk 1.0 was designed by using Borland Delphi 7.0 programming language. The knowledge representation of the acquisition was done with if-then production scheme. Control mechanism used backward chaining control strategy, while detection strategy used depth-first search. Model base management system is composed of selection for cultivation location, selection for pre-eminent product, risk analysis, risk management consultation, cultivation technology consultation, product quality consultation, and financial feasibility. Verification result of financial analysis with investment Rp. 24,310,953,724,- and capcity of production 756 tons/year are IRR 42%; NPV Rp. 15,167,878,918; PBP 2 years and 10 months; BEP 1,206.40 ton; and B/C Ratio 1.64. Consultation model possess input in the form of user's answer on factor or condition which was asked followed with certainty level of the mentioned condition. The output of the model is various risk diagnose and consultation result which were provided with certainty level. Consultation with this model may improve the effectiveness and quality in the decision making process in risk mamagement. There is a need for routine updating parameter of raw material supply, marketing, and processing technology modification in order for adjustment to development in seaweed agro industry. Design addition was proposed to accommodate other marine product and internet application to be more user friendly.