Determinan Harga Minyak Goreng Indonesia (Periode 2017-2022)

Abstract

Kelangkaan minyak goreng pada awal tahun 2022 menyebabkan harga minyak goreng menjadi mahal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis distribusi perdagangan dan determinan harga minyak goreng Indonesia. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif dan analisis VECM dengan data bulanan 2017-2022. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan harga minyak goreng mengalami kenaikan tajam pada September 2021-April 2022. Kelangkaan minyak goreng disebabkan oleh panic buying, penimbunan, ilegal ekspor, dan gagalnya pemerintah dalam mengontrol distribusi perdagangan minyak goreng. Hasil VECM menunjukkan perubahan harga minyak goreng dalam jangka pendek dipengaruhi oleh harga minyak goreng itu sendiri, harga TBS, harga CPO dunia, produksi CPO, dan ekspor CPO. Sedangkan dalam jangka panjang dipengaruhi oleh harga TBS domestik, harga CPO dunia, produksi CPO domestik, konsumsi CPO domestik, dan ekspor CPO. Hasil IRF dan FEVD menunjukkan bahwa guncangan variabel terhadap perubahan harga minyak goreng Indonesia bervariasi antar periodenya dan memiliki persentase kontribusi yang berbeda

The scarcity of cooking oil at the beginning of 2022 caused the price of cooking oil to become expensive. This study aims to analyze the distribution of trade and the determinants of Indonesian cooking oil prices. The methods used in this study are descriptive analysis and VECM analysis with monthly data for 2017– 2022. The results showed that the price of cooking oil had experienced a sharp increase in September 2021-April 2022. The scarcity of cooking oil was caused by panic buying, hoarding, illegal exports, and the government's failure to control the distribution of cooking oil. The VECM results showed that changes in the price of cooking oil in the short term were influenced by the price of the cooking oil itself, the price of FFB, the world CPO price, CPO production, and CPO exports. Meanwhile, in the long run were affected by domestic FFB prices, world CPO prices, domestic CPO production, domestic CPO consumption, and CPO exports. The results of IRF and FEVD showed that variable shock to changes in Indonesian cooking oil prices varied between periods and had different contribution percentages.