Determinan Harga Minyak Goreng Indonesia (Periode 2017-2022)
Date
2023Author
Alwan, Gatan Soleh
Widyastutik
Probokawuryan, Mutiara
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Kelangkaan minyak goreng pada awal tahun 2022 menyebabkan harga
minyak goreng menjadi mahal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis
distribusi perdagangan dan determinan harga minyak goreng Indonesia. Metode
yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif dan analisis VECM
dengan data bulanan 2017-2022. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan harga minyak
goreng mengalami kenaikan tajam pada September 2021-April 2022. Kelangkaan
minyak goreng disebabkan oleh panic buying, penimbunan, ilegal ekspor, dan
gagalnya pemerintah dalam mengontrol distribusi perdagangan minyak goreng.
Hasil VECM menunjukkan perubahan harga minyak goreng dalam jangka pendek
dipengaruhi oleh harga minyak goreng itu sendiri, harga TBS, harga CPO dunia,
produksi CPO, dan ekspor CPO. Sedangkan dalam jangka panjang dipengaruhi oleh
harga TBS domestik, harga CPO dunia, produksi CPO domestik, konsumsi CPO
domestik, dan ekspor CPO. Hasil IRF dan FEVD menunjukkan bahwa guncangan
variabel terhadap perubahan harga minyak goreng Indonesia bervariasi antar
periodenya dan memiliki persentase kontribusi yang berbeda The scarcity of cooking oil at the beginning of 2022 caused the price of
cooking oil to become expensive. This study aims to analyze the distribution of
trade and the determinants of Indonesian cooking oil prices. The methods used in
this study are descriptive analysis and VECM analysis with monthly data for 2017–
2022. The results showed that the price of cooking oil had experienced a sharp
increase in September 2021-April 2022. The scarcity of cooking oil was caused by
panic buying, hoarding, illegal exports, and the government's failure to control the
distribution of cooking oil. The VECM results showed that changes in the price of
cooking oil in the short term were influenced by the price of the cooking oil itself,
the price of FFB, the world CPO price, CPO production, and CPO exports.
Meanwhile, in the long run were affected by domestic FFB prices, world CPO
prices, domestic CPO production, domestic CPO consumption, and CPO exports.
The results of IRF and FEVD showed that variable shock to changes in Indonesian
cooking oil prices varied between periods and had different contribution
percentages.